Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) is poised to move against Kevin McCarthy as soon as Monday, sending Capitol Hill careening from a nearly averted government shutdown to the most serious attempt in a century to remove a House speaker.
The most up-to-date information on the questions that will define this coming week is as follows.
How much backing does Gaetz currently have, and how much does he need?
While it only takes one lawmaker to call for a vote on whether or not the speaker should resign, doing so would require support from a two-thirds majority of those present and voting on the relevant resolution.
The minority party will likely vote to replace McCarthy as speaker with their own candidate (or at least to remove McCarthy from office). We’ll discuss why that could not be the case in a minute. However, Gaetz will need at least five more votes to maintain the Republican majority.
The majority of Republicans believe Gaetz has the support he needs. Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ) has expressed his support for the plan publicly. Victoria Spartz, a Republican from Indiana, told Olivia Beavers that she is “open-minded right now.” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) also took to X to gauge opinion on whether or not McCarthy should remain in office.
Republicans Dan Bishop (North Carolina), Lauren Boebert (Colorado), Ken Buck (Colorado), Ralph Norman (South Carolina), and Matt Rosendale (Montana) are all being monitored by McCarthy’s supporters. Though most of the group’s leaders aren’t convinced, there are those who think the group might eventually grow to around 20 members.
Where does Gaetz intend to recruit new members of his gang?
Since the timetable for long-term budget negotiations with Democrats has been pushed back to before Thanksgiving, Gaetz and his allies will claim that the Republicans cannot rely on McCarthy to draw a firm line because he demonstrated over the weekend that he is uneasy with shutdowns.
Gaetz claims that McCarthy made a backroom agreement with Democrats over the weekend in order to secure their support in Saturday’s vote in exchange for committing to allow a future vote on billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, making the Ukraine issue equally critical. The majority of House Republicans voted last week to reject funding for aid to Ukraine, and an agreement along these lines might enrage even more of them.
Yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden seemed to lend credence to the idea, but the White House declined to elaborate and Democratic aides in the House of Representatives denied being involved in any such deal. The only thing that has been announced publicly by McCarthy’s office is that the House would “ensure any request for further aid to Ukraine is matched with a sound strategy and accountability” and that there will be measures to address the southern border.
And McCarthy’s reaction?
His own bluster has gotten him this far. During yesterday’s broadcast of CBS’s “Face the Nation,” McCarthy declared that he is ready for a fight with Gaetz: “If [Gaetz is] upset because he tried to push us in a shutdown and I made sure government didn’t shut down, then let’s have that fight.”
Outside and inside the Capitol, McCarthy’s friends are mobilising to paint Gaetz as a Democrat in league with them in their efforts to oust the speaker. Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.) tweeted, “Matt Gaetz is a charlatan,” as an example of a regular Republican hitting out. They’re also aiming to take advantage of divisions within the far-right caucus, as many Freedom Caucus members have expressed frustration with Gaetz’s antics, including Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.).
Mark Levin, a conservative radio presenter, has also gone on the attack on Gaetz, claiming that Gaetz’s caucus, and not McCarthy’s, is to blame for the spending punt: “They rant and rave without a plan and without a real objective and now we get this 45 day CR.” “THEY” are responsible for this.
When do Democrats sleep?
Now we get to the burning question of the week: would Democrats intervene to save McCarthy’s gavel? But all yesterday we heard about from Democrats was contempt for McCarthy.
The party is still bitter that McCarthy ignored their request to give Democrats more time to read the CR legislation on Saturday, when they only had 90 minutes. They were especially offended when McCarthy blamed them on “Face the Nation” for the shutdown brinkmanship just hours after they had helped him pass a continuing resolution (CR).
One senior Democratic aide described it as a “astonishing show of bad faith.” One Democratic legislator called it “the dumbest political move I’ve seen in a long time.” To paraphrase: “You need us, you f—king idiot!”
As a result of McCarthy’s betrayal of the budget limitations pact he reached with the White House, the Democrats no longer have any faith in him: “He’s created this scenario, wholly of his own creation. another top Democrat official added, “where he doesn’t have the benefit of the doubt.”
So, what exactly do Democrats seek?
Despite their animosity at McCarthy, Democrats spent the weekend exchanging texts and phone calls about how to proceed and what concessions they might be able to extract.
Some Democrats have proposed rearranging committee assignments to give their party a greater number of seats, including equal participation on the House Rules Committee and discussion of Ukraine aid.
One Democrat informed us that in order for the House to operate in a bipartisan fashion, concessions would be made to silence the radical MAGA faction.
Holding McCarthy to the spending restrictions agreement he made with Biden in May is a non-negotiable. Democrats argue that this is not a compromise but rather a guarantee.
Can the Democrats maintain unity?
For Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the ability to rally his party behind a strategy that can win concessions will be a crucial test. Just a handful of Democrats not showing up to vote or voting for McCarthy might save him.
Already, Democratic leaders in the House are stressing the importance of a unified front, with Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) promising a caucus meeting before any vote to remove McCarthy from office. The “Dear Colleague” letter’s message was crystal clear: no contract work.
When will we see this plan in action?
The procedure for dismissing a speaker is governed by many rules but has little precedence. Only once in American history has a “motion to vacate” (technically a resolution filed with the House) been used successfully, and that was in 1910, when then-Speaker Joseph Cannon (R-Ill.) withstood an attempt to remove him from office.
But first, the fundamentals: If Gaetz or another member wants to resign as speaker, they can file a resolution and bring it to a vote as a matter of privilege within two legislative days. It might be tabled at any time by McCarthy supporters.
The subject would be debated and put to a vote if the effort to table it or any other procedural moves failed. If that were to work, the election for a new speaker would have to start all over again, and McCarthy could theoretically run again and again until he finally won.
The drama may not be over even if the vote to remove McCarthy fails. Gaetz said he will keep trying until the House begins each day with “the prayer, the pledge, and the motion to vacate.”