For all the world, Mike Pence appears to be a potential presidential candidate.
The New York Times reported earlier this week that the former vice president hosted a retreat for funders and political allies in Utah last month. He is currently making rounds in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
These are the kinds of actions one takes when considering a presidential candidacy. In reality, Pence is following in the footsteps of other Republicans who have been named as potential 2024 challengers, such as Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin and Florida Senator Rick Scott.
When considering the possibility of Pence running in 2024, there is just one problematic factor: Donald Trump despises him, as does the Republican Party base that supports the former President.
Trump has frequently made it clear what he thinks of Pence.
As many other people are, including myself, Trump expressed his disappointment in Mike in May. “He’s just really, really let me down. All he had to do to take advantage of his excellent opportunity was to refer it back to the legislatures and let them make the decision. I’m therefore really dissatisfied in the position he adopted.
All of this can be traced back to Pence’s reluctance on January 6, 2021 to annul the results of the free and fair 2020 election. Trump keeps repeating the fabrication that his election was rigged.
Pence, on the other hand, has defended his choice by stating that he lacked the legal authority to change the Electoral College results (which is correct). He has now made an effort to keep the GOP’s future in mind rather than its history.
Pence’s issue is that Trump (and his supporters) are only interested in the past. Additionally, many think Pence fundamentally let down Trump in his hour of need.
Yes, there are portions of the Republican Party that are hostile toward Trump. They are pockets, though. And even minor ones. 77% of Republicans still have a favourable opinion of Trump, according to a national survey conducted in September by Marquette Law School. Most Republican respondents still want him to run for president again in 2024 (66% in the Marquette poll), according to most polls.
Given everything, it’s really difficult to see how Pence would compete with Trump. Running as the overwhelming favorite’s sworn adversary is not exactly a position of strength.
Additionally, even if Trump decides not to run, which seems highly improbable, the GOP field will undoubtedly be crowded with contenders frantically attempting to tie themselves to his legacy and, more crucially, his support base. Before the contest even starts, Pence appears doomed on that front.
So, if you’re Pence, why go through all the machinations, jockeying, and perhaps even running?
Because Pence wants to be president, to put it simply. and spent four years working for Trump, coming very close to getting the job.
In addition, he realises that if he waits until 2024 to run, he’ll probably be too out of touch with politics to do so in 2028 or later.
Pence might even be considering the 2024 election as a chance to exorcise the Trump demons; he could let Trumpworld criticise him during that contest and then make another bid in four or eight years with a (largely) clean slate. Pence, who is just 63 years old,
The key here is that Pence would run for office out of what he perceives to be necessity, believing that waiting any longer would harm his chances. However, in my opinion, he is already the longest of long shots.
