If Joe Biden and Donald Trump want to make history this year, the only thing stopping them are New Hampshire’s notoriously erratic voters.
Ever since the contemporary primary system was introduced in the early 1970s, not a single election has seen the two major-party nominees win every single state without losing a single one.
That’s what a study from last year by the Centre for Politics at UVA found. At least one nominee fell in every election, even in those with less intense primaries (e.g., 2000, 2004, and 2012). George W. Bush, for instance, narrowly lost the New Hampshire primary in 2000 to then-Sen. John McCain, but went on to easily win the Republican nomination.
It appears improbable that either Trump or Biden will lose this year if they both hold their ground in New Hampshire this week. The two upcoming Republican elections, the one in South Carolina on February 24 and the one in Nevada on February 8, are both significantly favoured by Trump. Nikki Haley is not even running in the Nevada caucuses. With Ron DeSantis’s withdrawal, Trump now has only Haley and another major competitor in the race, and a sweep of the next two states might put an end to her candidature.
In 1980, then-Sen. Ted Kennedy defeated then-President Jimmy Carter in around twelve such races, making him the last contender to defeat an incumbent in a state primary. It is very uncommon for an incumbent president to skate through the primaries undefeated.
However, Biden isn’t even listed as a Democratic candidate in New Hampshire. Therefore, if Biden were to defeat Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips (R) in that state as a write-in candidate, it would appear that Phillips has little chance of winning the primary in South Carolina and will not be on the ballot in Nevada.
