This Saturday in North Carolina, Donald Trump and his Republican opponent Nikki Haley are planning to hold opposing rallies. However, the former president’s appearance will offer a glimpse into his strategy going beyond the state’s Super Tuesday primary.
If any state is going to be a political epicentre even after next week’s elections, it’s North Carolina, which votes on Tuesday. With a possible rematch with President Joe Biden in his sights, Trump is likely to make multiple trips here as he aims for a third straight victory in this crucial battleground.
Again, he will face formidable opposition. An increasingly important part of Biden’s plan to reeminate himself is North Carolina, a state that Trump barely defeated in 2020. With the state’s demographics changing and other battleground states posing obstacles, the president’s advisers see its 16 electoral votes as both achievable and somewhat of a safety net.
“No one can take North Carolina for granted; it’s going to be a very competitive state for both sides,” predicted Paul Shumaker, a seasoned GOP operative responsible for numerous recent statewide victories. A continual state of flux is what it will be.
The weekend visits by former president Haley and vice president Kamala Harris highlight the growing significance of North Carolina on the electoral map leading up to Super Tuesday.
In her second visit to the state this year, Harris stopped in Durham on Friday to make a statement. “The president and I have been very intentional about the work that we are doing to invest in communities in many ways, including through small businesses,” she said.
Barack Obama surprised North Carolina in 2008, which was sixteen years ago. With the rapid expansion of suburban areas in Wake County surrounding Raleigh, Mecklenburg County outside Charlotte, and a few other cities, that solitary triumph—the first and only time a Democratic presidential candidate has carried the state in nearly half a century—offers less of a nostalgic allure for Biden’s campaign and more of the possibility of genuine opportunity.
Wake and Mecklenburg counties have added more than one third of the 836,000 new voters to the state since 2012, and they are still welcoming new citizens daily. Four years ago, Biden won both counties by a ratio of around 2:1.
Over the course of several elections, Sarah Reidy-Jones has seen the Republican Party’s (GOP) mounting challenge to compete in Charlotte. A former Republican operative and current leader of the Mecklenburg County GOP, she famously created the website “Don’t Seattle My Charlotte” to allay conservative fears about the state’s impending political transformation due to the tech boom.
She has doubts about the Republicans’ ability to maintain their grasp in North Carolina.
Her explanation was mathematical. “You can see the number of vehicles here that have number plates from other states.”
Haley has claimed that Republicans stand to lose this kind of swing state if they choose Trump as their nominee again; this has garnered her considerable support, but it will likely not be enough to unseat the former president.
“He can’t win a general election,” Haley declared Friday night at a Charlotte rally, prompting enthusiastic applause.
Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska endorsed Haley on Friday. Haley took aim at Trump for what she perceived as an inconsiderate treatment of her supporters.
“You are demonstrating exactly why you are going to lose a general election if you don’t think you need 30 to 40% of us,” she remarked.
As the Republican primary nears its end, Haley’s votes could teach us a thing or two—maybe not about her own campaign, but about Trump, Biden, or even a third-party contender. As they plot their eight-month march to the November election, Trump and Biden campaign advisors will be meticulously studying Tuesday’s primary results in order to target her followers.
Is it possible that Trump can persuade Haley’s followers to put aside their discontent and back his bid for the presidency? Is it possible that Biden may win over some of those moderates this November? Some of the most important labs that will help answer these and other issues will be located in North Carolina.
Voters with advanced degrees
Additionally, Trump’s struggle to garner support from college-educated voters for his third run for the White House could be further highlighted in North Carolina. North Carolina is leading the nation in the fastest-growing percentage of its population with a bachelor’s degree or above.
Voters in North Carolina with bachelor’s degrees or above leaned heavily towards Biden in 2020 and have so far this year formed a sizable coalition of Republicans who have been opposed to Trump in the Republican presidential primary.
Harris, during her Friday visit to North Carolina, attended a training session for young campaign volunteers in Durham. Durham is located inside the Research Triangle, which is known for its proximity to tech companies and top colleges like Duke University and the University of North Carolina. This is a nod to their importance in 2024.
Although many Republicans dismiss the idea that North Carolina would ultimately be considered a key battleground, Trump’s campaign advisors have good reason to take the election seriously given his shrinking victory margin from 2016 to 2020. In 2020, he received about 74,000 votes out of 5.4 million total, giving him a 1.3 percentage victory—less than half of his margin from four years prior.
Billy Ward, Raleigh’s Wake County Republican Party vice chairman, stated, “I don’t see us becoming a blue state anytime soon.” However, I do not consider any of it to be a given. We must ensure that every voter is inspired by reaching out to them.
At an end-of-year Trump rally, senior adviser Susie Wiles did not answer explicitly whether North Carolina will turn blue. However, she did tell AWN that the campaign is treating all the most-talked-about battlegrounds “seriously.”
The ones we know are competitive, in Wiles’s opinion, are competitive. “This time around, I believe we will compete with more vigour than before.”
According to an additional Trump advisor who spoke with AWN, the campaign is aware that the state will play a pivotal role in the race and plans to launch a strong ground strategy there.
The Republican National Committee will be led by Michael Whatley, the current chairman of the North Carolina GOP, who was personally selected by Trump to succeed Ronna McDaniel. Republicans in the area can take heart from the fact that the national party is committed to North Carolina’s importance this election cycle, thanks to Whatley’s elevation.
Whatley, however, exemplifies the state party’s drift towards MAGA, which has caused some to question the GOP’s future success in statewide contests. Whatley spreads misinformation on the 2020 election. The GOP censored US Senator Thom Tillis last year at their state convention, where Trump spoke, because he supported LGBTQ rights and immigration reform, the kind of bipartisan initiatives that helped the GOP win in a diverse purple state.