In a stalemate over Georgia and Pennsylvania, two states that have been pivotal in electing the previous two presidents, the fate of the White House could rest on the shoulders of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
New AWN/SSRS polls of six swing states, released on Wednesday, show the shifting electoral landscape that has occurred since the vice president took over for President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee.
Based on the polls, Harris has significantly boosted her party’s prospects of winning in November and has created multiple pathways to the 270 Electoral College votes that are necessary for victory. However, it appears that her dreams could be ruined if she were to let her momentum stagnate.
There is still nine weeks left for Trump to stage one of the most incredible political comebacks in US history, even if he has struggled for weeks to formulate a unified anti-Harris narrative. He has a chance to win back the presidency if he does well in a handful of crucial states.
In a broader sense, the latest surveys demonstrate that Harris has made a solid beginning to her remarkable challenge of salvaging an election that appeared to be in a state of disarray within the span of a few months. In his third presidential campaign, eight years after his first, they also show the incredible and lasting support that millions of Americans still have for Trump.
A close contest following a tumultuous summer
Voters in Wisconsin are expected to support Harris over Trump by a margin of 50% to 44%. The VP is leading in Michigan by 48% to 43%. The ex-president had a 49% to 44% lead in Arizona. In Pennsylvania, they are neck and neck at 47%, while in Georgia and Nevada, the race is close with Harris leading by 48% to Trump by 47%.
You can’t use the polls as a forecast for November; they just reflect the present situation following a turbulent political summer. However, they do a good job of illuminating the potential next two months of the presidential campaign, highlighting the strategic decisions that both campaigns must make, and highlighting the candidates’ present strengths and weaknesses. For example, compared to Biden’s previous polling, Harris’s deficit on the most important topic to voters—the economy—is now just eight points across six states, making her the most trusted candidate in this area.
Next week’s debate between Harris and Trump is one of the few scheduled events in the last months leading up to November that might once again flip the election on its head, and the picture of a closely contested race serves as a reminder of how crucial this event is.
Will the blue wall that Harris is constructing be wide enough?
Harris appears to have made good progress toward unifying the midwestern “Blue Wall” states—Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—that have traditionally provided the best chance for a Democratic contender to reclaim the presidency, according to polling data. However, with the race still close, it appears that Harris still has a huge uphill battle in Pennsylvania, a state that Biden narrowly won by only 1.2% four years ago.
In private, several Democrats had admitted that Biden was likely defeated in Georgia, a historically conservative state that has been competitive since 2020. However, with Harris’s entry, Georgia is once again in the race for the presidency.
Both candidates have previously visited several states, including Georgia and Pennsylvania. The two-day bus excursion through rural southern Georgia was attended by Harris and Walz last week. Additionally, Harris spent Monday in Pittsburgh and will be back later this week to prepare for the debate.
Last week, Trump was in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, for a rally that showcased his appeal to voters in former industrial powerhouses affected by the loss of blue-collar jobs overseas. He also recently made efforts to mend fences with popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, whom he accuses of failing to support his 2020 bid to unseat Biden in the state.
Playing out several scenarios across the electoral map reveals how crucial Pennsylvania and Georgia are to the race. Harris has enticing opportunities. If every state goes to their respective candidates, Harris might win the presidency with a win in Wisconsin and Michigan plus an electoral vote from Pennsylvania plus one from somewhere else.
On the other hand, Trump has a straightforward plan to regain power. He has a good chance of winning a second term with just Pennsylvania and Georgia if he takes North Carolina, another swing state that has gone Republican since 2012 and is not included in these polls. Whatever he does in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, or Michigan wouldn’t matter here.
Recent years have seen Pennsylvania and Georgia serve as important barometers. In 2020, Biden triumphed in every election and became the president. Trump shocked the nation in 2016 by defeating Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in every single state.
Harris must mobilize a large number of voters, particularly those from minority groups, in key cities such as Augusta, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta this year. Suburbs of these and other cities are also part of her strategy for a strong showing among voters. According to the AWN/SSRS polls, the vice president has a significant lead among female likely voters in both states. This is largely due to the fact that he has been a more forceful advocate for abortion rights compared to Biden.
Voters in rural areas, White men, and White people without a bachelor’s degree tend to lean toward Trump. It is clear that Harris and vice presidential candidate Tim Walz want to visit rural areas in an effort to reduce the Republican nominee’s lead in districts where he is more popular.