The most noteworthy development in Tuesday’s Republican presidential primary was the decision of a minor New Hampshire restaurant owner to defect from Chris Christie’s camp to that of Nikki Haley.
Like it was any big deal.
The lack of competition in the race has become its defining trait, two weeks before the Iowa caucuses. In the Republican primary, Donald Trump is now leading with more than 60% of the vote. Instead of working the ballroom at the Sheraton Hotel in West Des Moines like his former chief competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Trump welcomed the new year at Mar-a-Lago to the sounds of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle dancing and rhyming Vanilla Ice.
Coming into Iowa this week, the former president will have already iced out his opponents and is cruising towards what has felt like a slow-motion coronation for months.
Republican operative and incoming Haley caucus member Doug Gross stated, “Trump defies all political gravity and rules and consistently has, both nationally as well as in the state of Iowa.” Gross served as chief of staff to former IowaGov. Terry Branstad. “And that’s the reason he’s where he is: he has an incredibly loyal fan base, a powerful reputation, and plays the fiddle exceptionally well.”
Despite not participating in any of the four GOP debates and avoiding early nominating states like the plague, Trump is clearly not taking the primary lightly. He and his staff have improved their delegate operation, sought out endorsements, and relied on state parties. The president will personally make a series of visits in Iowa leading up to the caucuses, beginning on Friday and Saturday, which coincide with the anniversary of the riot at the Capitol on January 6th. In Des Moines, Iowa, he will have a town hall meeting for Fox next week to oppose a CNN discussion that airs on January 10.
It was difficult to disagree with top Trump lieutenants Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles when they stated in a memo on Tuesday that the sole “real battle is who will place second” in Iowa.
“The second-place finisher will be the focus of the media so that New Hampshire can be the topic of the week, regardless of how well President Trump does in Iowa,” wrote LaCivita and Wiles.
The media is eager to cover any new flavour of the week in a primary that has been more predictable than exciting. That would have been Tom Boucher on Tuesday. Only last month, the restaurant owner who had been appointed to Christie’s steering committee in the first primary state revealed his support for Haley.
However, it did highlight the various platforms that the contenders are vying for. Trump announced House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) endorsement soon after the Boucher news broke. On top of that, he devoted a significant portion of his interview with Breitbart to fantasising about taking over his solidly blue Democratic home state of New York, while also speculating about taking over Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey.
Hundreds of volunteer door-knockers spread out each weekend in early nominating states, greatly improving Trump’s primary status since 2016. Regardless of how those states may be impacted, his prospects there remain unknown.
“Despite the low bar, who cares? He’s run a far more disciplined and focused campaign than the last two.” Republican strategist Dave Carney, who is headquartered in New Hampshire, made the statement. A lot of people are starting to take note of his fantastic organisation. Being strategic with the resources available to your prospects is more important than playing preventative defence all the time. On the weekend leading up to the new year in Iowa, I doubt many people gave a hoot about anything other than Michigan’s College Football Playoff loss. That is unnecessary for him to accomplish. He is not trailing.
With his team pledging a “larger blitz” across the state, Trump is slated to make a return to Iowa on Friday for a pre-caucuses rally in Sioux Centre. However, his impact in the state will be significantly less than his rivals. Very few field operators think he should step up his game.
For what reason would he change his behaviour? Jeff Timmer, a former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party and a senior adviser to the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, warned that it may disrupt his approach and all of his hard work in simply consolidating his strength. On CNN, DeSantis and Haley should have a debate. Ah, perfect. Going on Fox, I will hold my town hall meeting and cut everyone off in the middle of it.
Trump now intends to “light up a stage and wax a chump like a candle,” to quote the rapper from the ’90s who performed at his resort.