To prevent candidates they believe will derail their prospects of winning the majority in the Senate this fall, senior Republicans are launching their most aggressive primary intervention plan in nearly a decade.
The GOP’s official campaign arm is supporting its preferred selections in an unusually public manner, which risks inflaming tensions with the right fringe of the party. Republican leaders are embracing a drastic shift after losing a seat last year under a laissez-faire primary campaign that former President Donald Trump helped design.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has endorsed West Virginia Governor Jim Justice and two battleground GOP recruits in the past two weeks: Sam Brown in Nevada and Tim Sheehy in Montana. A number of Republican senators have thrown their support behind Sheehy, while others have helped raise money for Justice and NRSC Chair Steve Daines has been effusive in his praise of Brown.
Rep. Jim Banks (D-IN) is one of four candidates sponsored by the NRSC under Daines’ leadership. This tactic hasn’t been used since the Republicans retook the Senate from the Democrats in 2014, following dismal showings in 2010 and 2012. Even back then, the party didn’t actively promote its preferred picks like Daines is this year; instead, it focused on getting rid of unpopular ones.
I think he made the right choice. We learned in ’22, ’10, and ’12 that we need high-caliber candidates to win. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell praised Steve, saying, “Steve is doing a great job getting us the most electable nominees, because that’s the way you win in November.”
These strategies hurt conservative party favourites like Senate candidates Alex Mooney in West Virginia, Jim Marchant in Nevada, and potential candidate Rep. Matt Rosendale in Montana. The party’s leadership’s hard hand is causing unease within that sizeable faction.
However, many Republicans consider this as a safe bet. Because the next chance for Republicans to flip the Senate might not come until 2028 if they blow it this time around, when they have one of their strongest maps in years.
“You can play to win or play not to piss people off — you can’t do both,” said Josh Holmes, an aide to McConnell.
The top priority for party leaders is to prevent Rosendale from challenging Sheehy in Montana, where they believe he would win the Republican primary but then lose to Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Tester. Rosendale has already informed his colleagues of his intention to run, and he has criticised Sheehy for having McConnell’s support. Sheehy, on the other hand, has the support of Governor Greg Gianforte, Representative Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), and nine other senators, including Daines.
“After last cycle, there’s evidence that we’ve got to get the electable candidates on the pitch,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) on Monday. He adds his support for Sheehy by saying, “It would be nice if we could clear the pitch there.”
To assist smooth out the intraparty competition, Daines has also endorsed Trump’s presidential campaign. Trump supported Mehmet Oz in the 2022 primary election for governor of Pennsylvania, but Republican leaders are set on hiring Dave McCormick for another run. Even though he won the primary, Oz ended up losing the election.
Mooney is capitalising on Justice’s support in Washington as the governor leads in the primary, despite the fact that his coal company is under legal investigation. According to John Findlay, Mooney’s campaign manager, “Jim Justice is one of the all-time worst recruits by the GOP establishment.”
Campaign manager Roman Stauffer said that Justice is getting a lot of support from voters in both Washington, DC and West Virginia because he “is the strongest candidate to win the U.S. Senate race.”
However, not all NRSC senators support the organisation favouring certain candidates in close races.
“I wish they weren’t, but I’m not in charge,” a Republican who requested anonymity in order to speak openly about party strategy said. This senator went on to say, “Not everybody agrees” on which candidates are the most electable.
And Democrats predict the aggressive GOP attempts will backfire in November, driving a wedge between GOP members until at least next summer.
All around the country, Republican senatorial candidates are being nominated in contentious primaries despite their obvious flaws and questionable histories. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Spokesman David Bergstein called such “a toxic combination” that will lead to their defeat in 2024.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRSC) made an all-out campaign to win over Wisconsin Representative Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), a charismatic war hero, by funding polling and promoting his qualifications to the public. Although initially considering a run against Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, the congressman finally decided against it, putting recruiters back to the drawing board just as controversial former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke began to tease them about a possible candidature of his own.
He posted a link to a survey on Twitter that showed him with a 20-point lead in a hypothetical Democratic primary for the Senate seat in Wisconsin.
Now that Baldwin has announced raising $3.2 million in the most recent quarter, GOP recruiters are shifting their attention to candidates who have the financial means to effectively counter Clarke and tie up Baldwin. According to someone acquainted with Eric Hovde’s thinking, the wealthy businessman who lost a primary campaign for the seat in 2012 is still seriously considering another run. However, he does not have a deadline for making a decision.
Daines has pledged to keep working to find candidates who can triumph in both the primary and general elections.
Brown, a decorated Army veteran who survived an IED strike in Afghanistan, was enthusiastically recruited by the NRSC to run against Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in Nevada. As other potential candidates began to announce their candidatures, their interest in him increased rapidly.
Jeffrey Gunter, a candidate who is less well-liked by the establishment, served as Trump’s ambassador to Iceland. Former state senator and failed Secretary of State candidate Marchant has already entered the contest in Nevada. Marchant is getting ready for the primary season as a prominent member of a group of Trump loyalists who irrationally question the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
Even when heavily outspent, Jim Marchant has never lost a primary. Despite running for office in several different states, “Sam Brown has never won a primary,” claimed Marchant’s campaign spokesman Rory McShane.
In Ohio, where Secretary of State Frank LaRose is considering running alongside state Senator Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno, the party’s strategy is still unclear. In its search for a candidate to challenge Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, the GOP may treat Ohio as a “open primary.”