Another long-serving official lost their job on Tuesday.
Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) lost her primary race this year, making her the second member of the progressive Squad to do so and the fourth member of Congress overall. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has targeted politicians it believes are not sufficiently pro-Israel, was a major funder of her campaign, investing millions of dollars.
Even before the deluge of outside money hit, Bush and the other two incumbents who lost this cycle were in political danger due to crucial mistakes they made.
Different incumbents who were in danger of losing their seats managed to hold on on Tuesday. The most recent schedule of battleground races is finalized.
Key points from the primaries on Tuesday are as follows:
While financial considerations are important, Bush’s frailties allowed
Prior to the expenditure by AIPAC’s super PAC, Bush was already an incumbent with a weak position. Her position had been undermined by a personal controversy involving a federal inquiry into her campaign spending on security services, as well as by her distancing herself from some labor allies by voting against the infrastructure package.
St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell’s formidable candidacy and the onslaught of outside money only served to heighten the already intense competition. Despite the fact that the Israel-Hamas conflict had played a little role in their campaign rhetoric, the United Democracy Project spent nearly $8 million against Bush because of her harsh criticism of the Israeli government. This primary was the second-most expensive in House history.
Those who were already determined to depose Bush were emboldened by the June loss of Representative Jamaal Bowman, who had been substantially funded by AIPAC and other pro-Israel organizations. Bell shared Bowman’s accusation that the incumbent had neglected her constituent obligations and alienated critical allies, as did Bowman’s opponent, George Latimer. After Bush tried to paint the outside spending as “disinformation,” she accused Bell of opportunism for abandoning her planned Senate candidacy.
A distinct set of circumstances led to an unexpectedly close campaign for another Democratic incumbent. Mary Waters, a Black member of the Detroit City Council, narrowly lost to Democratic candidate Shri Thanedar, an Indian-American lawmaker representing a mostly Black district in Detroit. Thanedar’s victory was more dramatic than anybody had anticipated. It’s shocking for Thanedar because his more formidable main opponent didn’t make the cut, despite having outspent Waters by a significant margin.
The participation-trophy endorsement strategy employed by Trump
Recent elections have shown that the influence of former president Donald Trump’s endorsement has been insufficient to propel contenders to victory. He is now taking a cautious approach.
Several candidates in several primaries have received Trump’s endorsement in the past few weeks. He did this on Tuesday in the heated GOP primary for governor of Missouri, endorsing Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, and state Sen. Bill Eigel, the three frontrunners. The case was won by Kehoe.
When he endorsed both Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf in the primary for Missouri state attorney general, he was engaging in a similar maneuver. Bailey came out on top.
Trump wanted to get back with Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse in Washington’s 4th District because Newhouse was one of only two Republicans who voted to remove Trump from office. At the eleventh hour, Trump lent his support to Tiffany Smiley, the party’s failed 2022 Senate candidate, in addition to former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, who he endorsed earlier in the campaign. Even though the race has not been called yet, Sessler and Newhouse were both expected to make it to the general election by early Wednesday morning.
After endorsing one candidate in a House primary in Arizona last year, Trump made history this week by endorsing two candidates in the same race. The candidate whose endorsement was longest was ultimately victorious. Its primary strength is called into question by Trump’s endorsement, which he is passing around. Is he still having an impact on primary voters if he is endorsing every major contender or changing his mind at the last minute?
In contests where Trump endorsed just one candidate, Trump also won on Tuesday, including the 3rd District of Missouri for former state senator Bob Onder and the 2nd District of Kansas for former state attorney general Derek Schmidt. Both of the red chairs are open and perfectly safe.
On the battlefield, there are no major surprises.
A Michigan Senate seat is up for grabs, and the predetermined primaries have set up a showdown between Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Representative Mike Rogers. Three of Rogers’ Republican opponents withdrew their names from consideration prior to the primary, and Slotkin’s candidacy effectively eliminated any serious challengers.
Also decided were the lineups for the competitive House races. Paul Junge’s return to the central Michigan seat was met with disapproval by national Republicans, who had already been unhappy with the retirement of Democratic Representative Dan Kildee. However, he was unstoppable. Even though Mary Draves, a former executive at Dow Chemical, had some support, Junge ultimately prevailed due to his superior fundraising and stronger name ID. He’ll be up against Kristen McDonald Rivet, who is the favorite of the Democrats.
The situation was rather similar in Washington’s 3rd District, where several Republicans were hoping to present an acceptable alternative to Joe Kent, the 2022 contender whose affiliations with extreme right-wing organizations undermined his candidacy, even if he had previously won the district in 2016 thanks to Trump’s support. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Kent) and Kent will face off again.
Carl Marlinga won the Democratic primary in a seat in Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, and the Democrats also fielded a retread candidate there. Rep. John James (R-OH) will be back in his sights. He ran against him in 2022 with unexpected strength despite relatively low levels of outside funding; nonetheless, in 2024, several Democrats were eager for a new face.
The Republican primary for Slotkin’s vacant seat was won by Tom Barrett, and the Democratic primary was won by Curtis Hertel Jr. Joe Biden defeated Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten by approximately nine points in 2020 in Michigan’s Third District, which attorney Paul Hudson will contest against. Additionally, the 8th District of Washington is going to be a struggle, with Democratic Representative Kim Schrier facing off against Republican Carmen Goers.
To face Democratic Representative Sharice Davids in Kansas’s 3rd District, doctor Prasanth Reddy prevailed in a primary that was tighter than anyone had anticipated. Although national Republicans have Reddy in their sights, the suburban Kansas City district is leaning Democratic.
