On Monday, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will likely make public his decision to abandon the Democratic presidential primary in favour of a non-party ballot bid. Kennedy would make this move after his repeated requests for a debate with President Joe Biden were ignored and Biden’s lead in the primary election polls widened to 50 points.
While Kennedy’s campaign for the Democratic nomination didn’t amount to much, he could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election if he had run as an independent.
While there isn’t a tonne of data on Kennedy as an independent candidate, what there is implies he could be one of the most competitive contenders of this century.
According to a poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos this past week, in a hypothetical election for president to be held in November 2024, Trump receives 40% of the vote, Biden receives 38%, and Kennedy receives 14%. The 2-point gap between Biden and Trump is consistent with the margin of error reported in other polls.
However, the 14% of voters who supported Kennedy is unprecedented. Take Libertarian Party’s 2016 presidential contender Gary Johnson as an example. Both major party nominees in the last election cycle (Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Trump) were widely disliked. However, when compared to Clinton and Trump, Johnson consistently fares worse in polls, with support dropping to as low as 14%.
Since Ross Perot’s 1996 presidential campaign, no eventual third-party or independent candidate has polled at 14% nationally.
Kennedy’s chances of winning 14% of the vote in November are low. The majority of third-party and minor-party candidates don’t make it to the finish line.
This is also demonstrated by looking at the Johnson case from 2016. Every nationwide survey that satisfied AWN’s criteria for publishing prior to September 2020 placed the former New Mexico governor at 4% or above. In such surveys, he consistently received double-digit support.
On Election Day, Johnson received only 3% of the vote.
He also has company. In the 1992 election, independent candidate Ross Perot actually led both major party nominees at one point before falling to a distant third place. John Anderson, an independent, was predicted to win the 1980 election by as many as 20 percent of the electorate, but he ultimately received fewer than 7 percent of the vote.
It’s impossible to predict how or if Kennedy’s poll numbers will shift between now and Election Day. Even if he only gains as much support as Johnson did, it may be significant.
Who gains the most?
The national polls show a close race between Biden and Trump. Biden is ahead by a small margin in certain polls. Some people think Trump is better. The situation is similar in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where Biden and Trump are separated by a razor’s edge.
Kennedy’s support might swing the election in favour of one of Biden or Trump if he drains support from the other.
So, who, if either, has the most reason to be concerned about a Kennedy run for office?
At this point, it’s still too soon to tell for sure. Kennedy has so far been a candidate in the Democratic primary, but he is much more popular with Republicans. The forthcoming Conservative Political Action Conference just announced him as a speaker.
Nonetheless, a Quinnipiac University poll conducted earlier this month found that the vast majority of Kennedy’s GOP supporters also have a positive opinion of Trump. Even if Trump Republicans like Kennedy, they probably won’t vote for him.
In a breakdown of voters, Kennedy has nearly the same amount of support among Democrats (and independents who lean their way) as he does among Republicans (and independents who lean GOP) who don’t like their party’s frontrunners. His approval rating is 31% among Democrats and 32% among Republicans in this sample.
In a hypothetical general election conducted by Ipsos, Kennedy received support from 1 in 5 Republicans and 1 in 10 Democrats. The margin isn’t huge, but it might swing the election in Biden’s favour in a close race.
According to the Ipsos survey, when a third-party candidate is added to the mix between Biden and Trump, Biden wins 43% to Trump’s 42%. When Kennedy is considered instead of a generic third-party candidate, Trump’s 1-point disadvantage (within the margin of error) becomes a 2-point lead (again, within the margin of error). The Republican Party might fare slightly better if Kennedy is on the ballot.
Among those who either didn’t vote in 2020 or aren’t expected to vote this time around, Kennedy has stronger net favorability ratings and lags the front-runners by a lesser margin, according to data from Ipsos and Quinnipiac.
As a result, Kennedy’s efforts to increase voter turnout could have no effect on the outcome of the election.
However, with the election between Biden and Trump being so tight, I doubt that either candidate would want to risk losing support by endorsing Kennedy.
The following 13 months will tell what happens.
