This could be the most important rematch in American history, pitting a president who sees himself as a defender of democracy against a former president who frequently rejects election results.
Anyone concerned about Donald Trump’s comeback and those who oppose Joe Biden’s triumph could agree that if Biden and Trump are on the ballot in 2024, nothing less than the republic’s future is at stake. In his introduction video on Tuesday, Biden openly stated that “we still are” in a “battle for the soul of America.”
So why does it feel like an unwelcome film sequel – the same actors, a predictable new narrative twist?
Candidates who have previously applied
Biden has been a national contender in five of the last ten presidential elections. In the Democratic primaries in 1988 and 2008, his first and second presidential aspirations faltered. In 2008 and 2012, he was Barack Obama’s running partner. After a brief absence in 2016, Biden has returned to challenge Trump in 2020.
He is now the oldest president in history, and he is urging voters to keep him in office until his 86th birthday.
Trump is already on his third election campaign in a row. And don’t forget, he teased runs in 1988, when Biden started his first failed effort, in 2000, when Trump briefly abandoned the GOP, and in 2012, when he led the drive questioning, falsely, Obama’s citizenship.
Candidates who run three or more times are less likely to be elected president. Ronald Reagan, who, like Biden and Trump, was technically a senior citizen when he joined office, is a successful example. Reagan was elected to his first term on the third attempt. He also won reelection despite low first-term approval ratings.
Indeed, according to Gallup data, at this point, a little more than two years into their presidencies, Biden, Trump, and Reagan were all hanging around 40% approval.
The primary is shaping out to be a ‘boring’ one.
Both Biden and Trump are currently poised to maintain their positions as leaders of their respective parties. AWN’s Harry Enten examines polling data to argue that this may be the most “boring” presidential primary season in history. It will be boring not because it is insignificant, but because there is currently little excitement.
Enten points out that Biden has yet to face a genuine rival, but Trump has consistently maintained a significant advantage over announced and prospective challengers.
Enten cites national and early primary state polling, as well as Trump’s rising list of endorsements, to explain Trump’s present strength in the GOP field:
ENTEN: You have to look at primaries with incumbents to see someone polling like Trump today and then lose the party nomination. Ted Kennedy lost the Democratic primary to President Jimmy Carter in 1980, although polling well ahead of him at the time.
Trump has already received over 60 endorsements from governors and members of Congress this time around. Candidates with comparable governor and congressional support at this time in the cycle have all gone on to win their parties’ nominations since 1980.
The field is not entirely formed.
A majority of the House delegation from Florida, Trump’s adopted home state and also home to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has not officially begun a presidential campaign but is widely seen as Trump’s main rival, have endorsed Trump.
DeSantis was asked about polls that show him lagging Trump during a trip to Japan.
“Well, I am not a candidate, so we’ll see what happens if and when that changes,” DeSantis told reporters.
Most people believe Biden should not be re-elected.
This is the political dichotomy in the United States. Biden and Trump are in strong positions in their respective primaries, but there is little excitement among the general public.
According to AWN research from March, less than 40% of registered voters believe Biden merits reelection. That means that more than 60% of registered voters believe he should not be re-elected. It would be a really frightening figure for Biden supporters if Trump did not elicit the same level of rage from a substantial part of the population.
a yearning for variety
While a slim majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Americans said in March that they would prefer the Democratic Party not select Biden in 2024, Biden has actually gained significantly on this front. Three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters were hoping for an alternative last summer. Meanwhile, Democrats surpassed predictions and retained control of the US Senate following the November midterm elections. It’s also worth mentioning that the majority of those who said they wanted to see a Biden replacement had no idea who that replacement should be.
Unlike Biden, Trump has genuine GOP primary challengers. DeSantis has benefited from a lot of media exposure, but he still trails Trump in primary polls.
Eric Bradner and Gregory Krieg of AWN discuss how tough it has been for Republican contenders to generate traction against Trump, despite his legal difficulties and possible weakness in a general election campaign.
Whether it’s a fear of alienating Trump’s core supporters or taking a social media thrashing, this new class of candidates – some officially in, others plotting their entry – has been cautious in their remarks about Trump, largely avoiding sharp criticism in favour of the occasional implicit jab, the kind that often fails to register with the average voter, or subtle indications of opposing policy views.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is an exception to the rule of Republicans stepping carefully around Trump.
“The reruns will be worse than the original show,” Christie predicted of a Trump primary nomination last week in New Hampshire.
There has been some shift among primary voters.
Trump has also made gains in recent polls. In AWN’s December poll, less than 40% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters supported Trump to be re-nominated. By March, a tiny majority of respondents in AWN’s poll felt Trump should be nominated.
According to a new NBC News survey released on Monday, Trump’s arrest on criminal charges by the Manhattan District Attorney does not appear to have affected him among Republicans. Among those who say they will vote in the Republican presidential primary next year, 46% say they would vote for Trump, 31% for DeSantis, and 6% for former Vice President Mike Pence. All of the other candidates examined had a 3% or lower.
However, getting a nomination is not the same as winning the presidential election. And majorities of Americans are dissatisfied with both men; according to an NBC poll, 60% believe Trump should not run. An even larger majority, 70%, believe Biden should not run.
As a result, the current version of a presidential election involving Biden or Trump will frustrate the majority of the public even as it appears to be the most likely option.