Even before this year’s voters cast their ballots, the partisan lean of a small number of districts might alter significantly, giving one party a leg up in the race for House control.
The Republican majority in the House is thin at three seats, and some congressional districts have been redrew since the midterms as a result of protracted legal disputes, some of which have not yet reached a resolution.
Redistricting after 2022 has probably gained two or three seats for Republicans thus far. That figure, however, might shift yet again—and maybe even tip the scales slightly in favour of Democrats—depending on the final configuration of the maps.
Even though some states’ primaries are coming up in a matter of weeks, many concerns about the makeup of certain districts remain unanswered. Keep an eye on these major redistricting storylines.
New maps have been produced by three states, some of which have significant ramifications.
After the midterms, in reaction to opponents’ successful litigation, North Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia drew new lines.
A powerful GOP gerrymander was drawn last year by the Republican-dominated legislature, which might lead to the party gaining four seats in the Tar Heel State. The state’s political makeup is currently even at seven Democrats and seven Republicans, but a possible 10-4 Republican split could be possible thanks to the state Supreme Court, which is currently controlled by the GOP.
The new design turned the districts of three Democratic incumbents—Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel, and Jeff Jackson—into solid GOP territory, so they decided not to compete for reelection. Even while it is still anticipated to be a tough race, Democrat Don Davis’ battleground district turned somewhat redder. Republicans may gain as many as four seats, with three being the worst case scenario.
Nevertheless, it is highly probable that the Democrats will gain one seat in Alabama. The ruling was upheld by the Supreme Court after a lower court determined that the lines used in 2022 probably violated the Voting Rights Act by weakening the voting power of Black voters. They now have a second chance to elect a representative in Alabama because to a newly formed district that is mostly Black. There may be a shift in the delegation’s composition, with five Republicans and two Democrats replacing the current six Republicans and one Democrat.
Meanwhile, despite the new map, the nine Republicans and five Democrats that make up Georgia’s delegation will remain unchanged. By completely wiping out McBath’s district, however, they did endanger the political career of Democratic Representative Lucy McBath.
Republican lawmakers redrew the plan to create more districts with Black majorities or near-majorities, while keeping the same partisan balance, after a judge invalidated the 2022 boundaries for violating the Voting Rights Act. A new majority-Black seat was created by carving up McBath’s prior district, which had been a majority-minority district (also called a “coalition district”), in which no one racial minority group was the dominant one.
Concerning the three new maps, litigation will continue — All three maps are likely to remain in place until at least 2024, despite Republican appeals in Alabama, Democratic lawsuits in North Carolina and Georgia over alleged racial gerrymandering, and other challenges.
New maps are still required for two states.
New lines have been required by two states’ courts, but they have not yet been drawn by mapmakers.
Following the precedent set by Georgia and Alabama, a federal court has ruled that Louisiana must establish a new Black opportunity district because its existing electoral map most certainly violates the Voting Rights Act. In all likelihood, that would also result in the election of another Democratic lawmaker.
The Louisiana legislature, which is controlled by Republicans, has until January 31st to establish new boundaries; a special session may be called somewhere in the middle of the month.
A new map is also being put up in New York. During the midterms, Democrats there contested a court-drawn map that was characterised by intense competition. Although Democrats were able to successfully challenge that map in court, the new lines are still being drawn, so the final partisan split in the state is undetermined.
The Democratic-controlled legislature in 2022 used a major gerrymander when drawing the boundaries, which might have resulted in their victory in 22 out of 26 seats in the state. Nevertheless, following the midterms, eleven Republicans found themselves in the delegation due to the court-drawn map. Because Republicans have threatened legal action, Democrats may attempt to maintain their advantage in this year’s redistricting, or they may choose for a less extreme gerrymander that yet provides them a distinct edge.
An impartial redistricting commission must review the plan before it can be finalised by the Democratically controlled legislature. Even though there is still a lot of work to be done, a half-dozen seats are currently up for grabs in New York, depending on whether the map stays relatively close to the elections or the Democrats attempt to gain as much ground as possible.
Just like in Georgia and Alabama, a court in Louisiana will look at any new map to make sure it fixes the Voting Rights Act violation. If it doesn’t, the court could even draw the lines themselves. And because the court-drawn maps in New York were overturned on procedural reasons, Republicans could sue, claiming partisan gerrymandering, and seek a decision on the merits if Democrats were to gerrymander.
There may be at least one more round of judicial review of both maps before they are finalised for 2024, so their futures are uncertain.
Litigation over the cartography of several states has not been completed.
All throughout the nation, courts are debating the fate of a few maps. South Carolina is home to the largest.
Claims that the state’s 1st Congressional District, which is now represented by GOP Rep. Nancy Mace, constituted an unlawful racial gerrymander were addressed in October by the U.S. Supreme Court. Although the court has not yet announced a decision-releasing date, it appeared during arguments that the conservative justices would not support the petitioners’ request to have the map vacated, therefore maintaining the GOP-leaning district.
Another case involving partisan gerrymandering that was heard in July by the Utah Supreme Court has likewise not been decided. By dividing a Salt Lake City-area battleground district into four safe Republican districts, Republicans there effectively won the election. That swing district has the potential to become a contested seat for both parties again if challengers are successful.
Two cases in Florida are contesting the redistricting plan that Republican Ron DeSantis used to seize control of the state in 2022. A federal judge has yet to render a decision following a September hearing on a racial gerrymandering claim, and a state court case is facing long odds following an appellate court’s December overturning of a previous court’s finding that the map was unconstitutional. The timing is still up in the air, but if the Democrats win the day in court, they could gain one seat.
The lack of clarity will only impact a small number of seats in the end, regardless of where the lines are drawn (in states like New York, for example, or in courts nationwide). Coming November, every seat might make a difference because Republicans are holding on to a small majority.
