All eyes will be on critical swing states as ballots are counted in the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Both candidates have crisscrossed the seven important swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — to appeal to undecided voters and connect with them on the topics that matter most to them.
While voters in these battleground states share the same concerns as the rest of the country, there are particular problems that stand out as top priorities for their citizens, with the economy reigning supreme as a critical voter issue with only a few days till Election Day.
It is the economy.
“The number one problem is the same as it has always been: the economy. Of obviously, the economy is multidimensional. Todd Belt, director of George Washington University’s Political Management program, stated, “We have the growth rate, unemployment, consumer confidence, and, of course, inflation.”
According to a recent AWN/Ipsos poll, 44% of Americans believe they are not as well off now as they were when President Joe Biden began office, tying the most negative result on this subject since 1986.
Furthermore, while inflation has down and employment is high, most people believe the economy is deteriorating, with 59% saying it is getting worse and 23% saying it is improving. And among registered voters who believe the economy is deteriorating, Trump leads Harris by a comfortable 53 points, 74-21%.
According to a 538-poll analysis, the economy is a top voter issue in nearly all swing states, for a variety of reasons. Still, Belt stated that the economy is “the No. 1 issue everywhere you go.”
Nevada’s economy is heavily reliant on the hospitality industry, making economic issues a primary priority for voters in the state. Clark County, which contains Las Vegas, accounts for around 75% of the state’s population and employs a large number of hospitality professionals. According to poll analysis by 538, Nevada voters ranked the economy as the most significant issue confronting their state, most likely as a result of these factors.
Home prices, fracking, and immigration
Housing affordability is another major concern for voters in battleground areas like Nevada and North Carolina, where property prices have skyrocketed.
North Carolina’s median home price increased from $193,200 in the 2017-19 survey to $280,600 in the 2020-22 survey, the seventh-largest percentage rise in the country, according to the American Community Survey. According to Zillow, the Home Value Index in Nevada has increased by 34% since the beginning of Biden’s administration, somewhat faster than the national rate of gain.
Belt noted that people in key swing states are concerned about the cost of groceries, gasoline, and housing.
“The issue of the economy, of course, is the affordability of life. “This is what we call our kitchen table, pocketbook issue,” Belt explained. “It has to do with food and gas. And, of course, the most common topic of discussion has been housing costs.”
In battleground Pennsylvania, fracking is a major local issue with implications for both the economy and the environment.
Immigration is another major concern for many swing-state voters, particularly those in the Sun Belt. Arizona, a border state, has been a common campaign destination for Trump and Harris, who have frequently debated immigration while there. It’s also on voters’ minds in Nevada, where Hispanics and Latinos make up the largest minority group (28% of the population).
“People do have [immigration] on their minds because it has been pushed as a big issue in the media,” Belt informed me.
Trump has used immigration to criticize Harris’ immigration policy, blaming her for the border crisis and capitalizing on his false description to her as the “border czar.”
Belt highlighted that immigration is frequently linked to other major issues, such as crime, a strategy Trump has used on the campaign trail.
Despite the fact that US citizens commit crimes at a higher rate than undocumented immigrants, Trump depicted them as “criminals” who will “cut your throat” during a September campaign visit in Wisconsin. Also, while in Tempe, Arizona, last week, Trump slammed the Biden-Harris administration’s border policy, referring to the United States as a “garbage can for the world.”
Abortion
Abortion has been a prominent voter issue when the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade in 2022, establishing the constitutional right to abortion. Democrats have seized on the Supreme Court decision, which Trump frequently brags about.
“The Democrats believe that this is the kryptonite for the Republicans in the last couple of elections,” Belt informed me.
Abortion remains a rallying point for Democrats, who were able to avoid a “red wave” during the 2022 midterms by focusing their messaging on it. According to Harris’ team, reproductive freedom remains one of the most important topics for undecided voters.
Several states, including battlegrounds Arizona and Nevada, have ballot proposals that would modify their state constitutions to include specific language protecting or recognizing the right to abortion for all residents.
According to 538’s poll analysis, abortion is a more crucial issue in Wisconsin than it is nationally. The legal status of abortion was extensively debated in the state when the Supreme Court rejected Roe v. Wade, resulting in a 15-month period during which no legal abortions were performed in accordance with an 1849 legislation that criminalized abortion.
Even with other issues on swing states’ radar, Belt observed that Harris and Trump both seek to link message to the economy.
“You’ll see candidates like Donald Trump talk about how immigration is impacting the economy and jobs,” he told reporters. “And so there are these auxiliary issues that they’re trying to push, but they also tie them to the economy, because they know that’s what voters care about the most.”
