Even the generally brazen Donald Trump is alarmed by the turbulent foreign scenario he will inherit as president next month, into which he is sure to infuse new unpredictability.
“It certainly appears that the world is going a little crazy right now,” the president-elect remarked Saturday at a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, as he returned to the global stage for the second time.
The stunning fall of the al-Assad dynasty in Syria on Sunday created new and perilous circumstances that will demand Trump’s attention — despite his desire to withdraw the US from dangerous Middle Eastern war zones — and will most likely provide an immediate test of his foreign policy goals and acumen come January.
“This isn’t our struggle. Let things play out. “Do not get involved,” Trump said on Truth Social on Saturday, as rebels surged near Damascus. His remark was indicative of a foreign policy backlash against over two decades of US wars in the Middle East and South Asia. However, as a global power in an integrated international economy, and with US adversaries attempting to reduce American dominance, there may come a time when American interests need Trump to intervene, diplomatically if not militarily.
“When it becomes a national security interest and a threat to the United States, then we would get involved,” Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin, a major Trump friend, told AWN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.
The rapid rearranging of Middle Eastern geopolitics may also provide opportunities for Trump’s other geopolitical aims, such as renewing his battle with Iran. In his weekend social media messages, the president-elect again emphasized that the removal of President Bashar al-Assad was a defeat for Russia, urging President Vladimir Putin to cut his losses by finishing the war in Ukraine.
However, Trump’s first-term actions and plans for his second term, particularly those put out in his first major TV interview since the election, which was taped on Friday, prior to Assad’s removal, demonstrate that he sees the world and its issues through a win-loss lens for the United States. In a wide-ranging interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” which aired Sunday, he said Ukraine should “probably” brace for less aid with him in office and would commit to remaining in NATO only if other nations pay their bills and “treat us fairly.” He further emphasized his “America First” stance by outlining his proposals to prioritize the mass deportation of migrants with criminal records and to remove birthright citizenship.
Trump faces a tightening web of American opponents.
But Trump faces significant hurdles in Syria and elsewhere.
The seizure, commanded by a rebel group Washington considers a terrorist organization once associated with al Qaeda, raises concerns about whether the fragmented country would once again become a terror sanctuary, endangering US security. Trump may have to decide soon whether to keep hundreds of US troops in Syria to combat any revival of ISIS. On Sunday, President Joe Biden ordered a series of US strikes against ISIS targets in the country.
And Assad’s demise is inextricably related to other US foreign policy interests, notably, as Trump pointed out, Russia, which propped up the Syrian president’s authority in order to preserve its own Middle Eastern footprint.
Assad’s fall is another serious blow to Iran, following Israel’s wars in Lebanon against Hezbollah and Gaza against Hamas, which devastated the Islamic Republic’s proxies and left Tehran’s leadership looking more vulnerable than it has in years as it braces for a looming succession drama due to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s advanced age. Perceptions of Iran’s weakness may push the Trump administration to take an even stricter stance than is currently envisaged, as the country expands its stockpile of near-weapons grade uranium.
The incoming president has a wide range of foreign policy issues, from Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and Yemen in the Middle East to Eurasia, where the war in Ukraine and its tributary crises are at the center. The fight has gone worldwide, with North Korean foot troops unexpectedly entering a European land war. If Russia, as some experts fear, is providing Pyongyang with ballistic missile expertise or technology in exchange, the US stalemate with the isolated state might escalate. Iran has also provided Russia with drones and missiles, according to US sources.
And America’s issues with Russia, North Korea, and Iran are exacerbated by a loose but growing strategic alliance between the three and China. Many of the incoming Trump administration’s top executives and supporters have previously suggested that the United States should withdraw from locations such as the Middle East and Europe in order to focus military and financial resources on what they perceive as an existential conflict with Asia’s superpower. However, given the rapidly shifting geopolitical realities, America’s rivals are unlikely to grant the president-elect this option.
This is a significantly more complex and potentially deadly world than the one Trump experienced during his first term. His abrupt remarks and rebukes to US allies, like as those in Europe and Asia, frequently weakened by their own personal upheaval, sent shockwaves around the world. Those allies are also prepared for his demands for more defense spending, which many may struggle to meet given their precarious economic positions.
Biden leads the US response, but the world looks to Trump.
Until January 20, Russia is not technically Trump’s problem, despite his tough foreign policy remarks, tariff threats, and weekend trip to Paris for the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral, which gave the impression that he is already in charge.
Biden reacted to Assad’s ouster by praising justice for the Syrian people and promising to keep any instability in the country from spreading throughout the region. He promised to collaborate with the United Nations to establish an independent and sovereign Syria with a new constitution and administration. He also announced raids by B-52 bombers, F-15 fighter jets, and A-10 aircraft against ISIS positions in central Syria.
But he will shortly transfer over to Trump, whose fundamental distrust of Middle Eastern ventures stems from years of bloody foreign conflicts. History also shows that the most promising periods in a tormented region are only false dawns.
“I believe the US is conflicted. According to Fawaz Gerges, an international relations professor at the London School of Economics, the current situation is a significant setback for Russia and Iran. “The Americans are aware that Syria has the potential to spiral out of control.” And Syria dominated by an Islamist Salafi movement is not what the Americans seek.”
A week ago, no one would have foreseen the end of Syria’s horrific half-century rule by Assad and his father, late President Hafez al-Assad. The rapidity with which the system collapsed makes it impossible to forecast the situation Trump will inherit next month.
The fear is that an ethnically and religiously divided society will further fragment, a terrible civil war would erupt, and refugees will rush neighboring countries, causing a humanitarian crisis. Even if the major organization in the rebel coalition, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), takes power and brings peace, the economy is in shambles, towns and public services are destroyed, and the return of refugees who fled in recent years might cause widespread instability.
So, while Trump examines the current US deployment in Syria, he must also decide how deeply he will invest in the country’s future — and, if not, whether he is willing to let US foes to fill the void and establish their own dominance.
There is no visible monetary gain for the US in Syria, and most presidents’ traditional idea that the US should foster stability contradicts Trump’s personality and “America First” ideology.
Still, the removal of Assad may assist improve Israel’s security, which is essential to Trump. A united, stable country may halt Tehran’s ground shipments of weaponry to rebuild Hezbollah in Lebanon.
