Joe Biden’s closest advisers have been working for months to get him ready to officially announce his reelection campaign. Nevertheless, with the president apparently hesitant to take the plunge, apprehension is sneaking into discussions about 2024: What if he decides not to?
Biden’s previous presidential campaign decisions have been drawn out and laborious. This time, he has fallen past his most ambitious launch date of February, as previously described by advisers. They are now converging around April.
Even that goal, though, is far from certain. According to some in the president’s orbit, there is no firm timeline or official mechanism in place for deciding on a launch date. According to four people acquainted with the president’s thinking, a final decision has been postponed due to real-world events. His covert journey to Kyiv over the holiday weekend required extensive planning, and the favourable reception to it was seen internally as giving him more leeway to return to domestic politics.
While nearly everyone in Biden’s orbit believes he will eventually give the all-clear, the delay has resulted in an awkward deep freeze across the party, with some potential presidential aspirants and scores of major donors strategizing and even developing a Plan B while remaining respectful and publicly supportive of the 80-year-old president.
Democratic governors JB Pritzker of Illinois, Gavin Newsom of California, and Phil Murphy of New Jersey have all made actions that could be interpreted as attempts to keep the door open if Biden steps down — albeit with enough vagueness to allow them plausible deniability. Senators such as Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar have made similar initiatives.
Those close to the president depicted him as a sort of Hamlet on Delaware’s Christina River, nervously biding his time while he mulls over the details of his final campaign. In interviews, these individuals expressed the idea that the prevailing thought in Washington, D.C. — that he will not die before 2024 — has hardened too strongly, too soon.
“Inertia has set in,” claimed one Biden confidant. “It’s not that he won’t run; in fact, it’s assumed that he will. But nothing has been decided. And nothing will be settled until it is.”
‘If he waits, he will have doubts and troubles.’
The stalemate wasn’t always so obvious. Following former President Donald Trump’s debut in November, Biden advisers were eager to begin developing their own launch strategies. That sense of urgency has faded. They see no realistic primary challengers, owing to Democrats’ better-than-expected election results and Biden’s new early state presidential nomination timetable. Putting out on completing campaign paperwork also helps Biden to avoid having to post a less-than-impressive fundraising total for a nearly-completed first quarter.
While the limbo persists, Biden’s aides have been working to staff a campaign and coordinate with a major super PAC. According to a person familiar with the plans, Future Forward, which has been airing TV ads in support of the president’s agenda, would likely be Biden’s principal super PAC, while other groups would have a stake in the campaign’s portfolio.
To the surprise of some Biden allies, three people familiar with the meetings say he has only spoken sparingly about a future campaign. His primary concentration on a daily basis is the job itself. He spends little time discussing the race, with the exception of the occasional phone conversation with an adviser to analyse polling results. While First Lady Jill Biden has always indicated her support for another attempt, some in the president’s inner circle are now wondering if the upcoming Hunter Biden investigations will prompt the president to reconsider a run. Some do not believe it will.
A decision by Biden to skip another run would amount to a political earthquake not seen among Democrats in more than a half-century, when Lyndon B. Johnson announced his intention to leave down, citing widening “division in the American home now.”
It would focus a flood of attention on his running mate, Kamala Harris, whose inconsistent performances have prompted worries among other Democrats about her capacity to win – either the primary, the general election, or both. And it would break the logjam established by Biden himself in 2020 when he dispatched with the vast field of Democratic competitors, which included Harris.
“Clearly, it creates uncertainties and problems if he waits and waits and waits,” Democratic strategist Mark Longabaugh said, adding that he believes Biden will run — and that he won’t wait too long. “But I suppose some people would be stomping around if he didn’t declare until June or something.”
“I think there would be a lot of negative discourse… among Democratic elites, and I just think that would push them to make a decision,” Longabaugh concluded. “I just don’t think he’ll be able to dance around till the summer.”
A potential campaign takes form.
Biden and much of his inner circle continue to claim that he intends to run, with the only caveat being a catastrophic health incident that prevents him from doing so. Anita Dunn, Jen O’Malley Dillon, and Mike Donilon have efficiently managed the campaign-in-waiting, with Donilon considering transitioning to a full-fledged campaign while the others handle operations from the White House.
Other key aides, including as Steve Ricchetti and Bruce Reed, would be extensively involved, while former chief of staff Ron Klain may serve as an outside consultant for a 2024 bid.
“The president has clearly stated his intention to run but has not made a final decision,” White House spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement. “As you heard in the State of the Union, following the best midterm results for a new Democratic president in 60 years, his focus is on ‘finishing the job’ by delivering more results for American people and ensuring that our economy works from the bottom-up and the middle-out — not the top-down.”
For the time being, the majority of the senior team sees no reason to rush and believes he will leave in April. That was the same month Biden announced his 2019 primary campaign and Barack Obama relaunched his campaign in 2011. Bill Clinton announced in April of the year before his reelection, and George W. Bush in May, according to Bates.
In addition to Biden’s unrivalled grasp on the party, they cite a sense that some of his legislative victories, like as the infrastructure and CHIPS acts, will pay benefits in the months leading up to Election Day, as well as the necessity to keep pace with the president. They point to an upcoming year of extensive overseas travel, including landmark stops in Ukraine and Poland to rally European allies against Russia.