Donald J. Trump turned his back on the audience and glanced at the screen. Ominous music rang out. For the next minute and a half, the former president and his Atlanta crowd remained silently and watched TV footage of unauthorized immigrants committing heinous atrocities.
When the montage concluded, Mr. Trump publicly stated what he had been telling his aides privately for weeks: immigration is the “No. 1” issue in the 2024 race.
“That outperforms the economy. “That beats it all out for me, it’s not even close,” Mr. Trump said of the immigration issue after watching the footage on Tuesday night. “The United States is now an occupied nation. But on November 5, 2024, it will be Liberation Day in America.”
In the final weeks of a campaign that the former president has been running since his first year out of office, Mr. Trump is going with his gut, doubling down on the rhetoric that he believes won him the 2016 election and making immigration and the border the centerpiece of his closing message to voters.
These instincts conflict with the data and some of his experts.
Mr. Trump has told advisers that he defeated Hillary Clinton on the border in 2016, but that by 2020, the border had been “fixed” — illegal crossings having reduced dramatically, thanks in part to the coronavirus outbreak — so he couldn’t use it as a campaign issue against Joseph R. Biden Jr. He believes immigration is more powerful than ever as a political issue, citing record levels of border crossings under the Biden-Harris administration and his role in the defeat of a bipartisan border security plan proposed by the administration.
However, neither public nor private surveys support Mr. Trump’s racial theories. Voters usually identify the economy and the high cost of living as their most pressing concerns.
Mr. Trump has spent a significant amount of time and energy in recent days attending economic-themed events, advocating proposals to make car loan interest fully tax deductible and to grant corporations tax advantages and other perks if they relocate or maintain their production in the United States.
However, Mr. Trump derives his energy from his rallies, and the reaction on immigration he receives there is helping to convince him that the subject is more beneficial to him than the economy. When he goes on an immigration rant, Mr. Trump becomes impassioned, florid, dark, and tribal. And the audience and the press react differently than they do when he talks about food prices, taxes, or tariffs. It receives greater attention, as it always has.
According to a person familiar with Mr. Trump, he has told allies that he believes crowds become “bored” when he talks too much on the economy.
Mr. Trump now has a fresh reason to focus on the issue: he has told rally attendees and individuals close to him that his opposition to illegal immigration saved his life.
In Butler, Pa., in July, Mr. Trump twisted his head to look at a chart of illegal border crossings on a screen just as a would-be assassin’s bullet missed his skull by less than an inch, grazing his ear. He has elevated the graphic and the issue it depicts to near-mythical proportions. “If you think about it, illegal immigration saved my life—I’m the only one,” Mr. Trump told an audience in Aurora, Colorado. “Usually, it’s the opposite.”
Some in Mr. Trump’s entourage, such as his key adviser Stephen Miller, totally embrace his impulse to prioritize immigration as the most important issue for voters. Other allies are concerned that some of his more radical immigration statements, such as his unsubstantiated assertion that Haitian migrants devour cats and dogs, may turn off moderate voters he needs.
Mr. Trump has been urging aides to provide more immigration substance, and they are complying. Mr. Miller, the most ardent immigration hardliner, has been flying more frequently on Mr. Trump’s jet since the summer, and he has played a significant role in framing his final message. Mr. Miller declined to comment on this article.
Last month, Mr. Trump planned to visit Springfield, Ohio, after circulating false claims that Haitian migrants were eating the city’s pets. He openly stated that he would be traveling to Springfield soon.