Joe Biden’s introduction video wasn’t exactly groundbreaking.
Among other things, he was connected with freedom, democracy, honesty, decency, and the soul of America.
It’s not uncommon for a president’s reelection campaign to be built on gauzy sentiments — recall Ronald Reagan’s “Morning Again in America” reelection campaign in 1984. The Biden video, however, had a deeper subtext. It was all about making a comparison with Trump as a threat to, or the polar opposite of, established institutions and pieties, without invoking Donald Trump’s name.
In other words, the video was just another salvo in the ongoing battle over which party will identify itself as more normal in 2024. Republicans applauded newly elected Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ GOP answer to the State of the Union address, which stated that “the choice is between normal and crazy.” That’s a terrific frame – as long as Republicans don’t come out as insane, which is exactly what Joe Biden and the Democrats are hoping for.
Naturally, the two sides portray their respective positions on the normal-crazy continuum in different ways.
Transgender rights are the inevitable next stage in the growth of civil rights for Democrats, and it is all about inclusivity; for Republicans, it is a foolish fad that is infringing on parents’ rights and endangering women’s sports.
For Democrats, the rising emphasis on race in education simply symbolises teaching the country’s history of racism; for Republicans, it shows an ideologically motivated goal that does not belong in schools.
For Democrats, initiatives in Florida and elsewhere to remove books with unpleasant content from public schools amount to book banning; for Republicans, it means ensuring that children aren’t exposed to inappropriate material in schools whose approach should be firmly centred.
And so forth. The parties will continue to fight over these problems, but the top of the ticket in 2024 will play a significant role in determining which party can claim the mantle of normalcy.
For good reason, Biden and his staff believe that a rematch with Trump will not be a contest.
Trump rails against the “crazies” on the other side, portraying himself as a champion of reason. He is, nevertheless, basically a disruptor. He is uninterested in politics as usual, believing that politics as unexpected is what is required (and is far more fascinating and amusing).
Normal politics, according to MAGA, is corrupt. Normal is pointless. Normalcy is a ruse. Normalcy is for losers. Only their man sees through it all, tells the truth, and, like the woman in the famous “1984” Apple commercial, will bring the hammer down on the system.
In 2016, Trump broke all the rules to shake up politics and bring to the forefront fresh viewpoints on immigration, trade, and China; now, he wants to break all the rules to exact retribution on all those who allegedly stole his election victory.
All of this suited Biden perfectly. He couldn’t have scripted a better opponent with a better message and effect for his aims.
With inflation eroding real earnings in previous years and a possible recession looming, Biden cannot afford to remain complacent. Anyone could beat him.
Still, Trump’s attempt to persuade his vice president to obstruct the counting of electoral votes in 2020, his defence of the Jan. 6 rioters, his call for the Constitution to be suspended, his bodyguard of strange loyalists led by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, and his erratic statements and positions (attacking the state of Florida and threatening not to participate in Republican debates in the last few days) all make Biden normal by default.
If Biden’s theory of the case against Trump is true (circumstances and execution will, of course, matter), it crumbles if someone other than Trump becomes the Republican nominee.
To begin with, a contest against Trump effectively eliminates age. Another Republican brings it to the forefront.
It is unusual to try to march an 80-year-old guy through a national election and another term in government. Indeed, it is unprecedented and very unsettling, which is why many voters believe Biden should not run again. Running a 44-year-old (Ron DeSantis) or a 57-year-old (Tim Scott) is expected.
The Biden campaign believes that if DeSantis is the Republican nominee, he, like Trump, will be labelled as a MAGA radical. In that case, DeSantis will have defeated Trump in an extraordinarily nasty primary battle. Trump will undoubtedly brand him a phoney and a cheat for the crime of defeating him. It will be difficult to depict DeSantis as a tool of the man who tried and failed to ruin him and is likely still trying.
