The Republican presidential primary for 2024 is not yet completely underway, but we are already at the food fight stage.
A super PAC backing former President Donald Trump attempted to smear Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with pudding, latching on an allegation about his eating habits, which the governor rejects, to make a point about Social Security and Medicare.
The advertisement itself is revolting. And it drew a super PAC backing DeSantis off the sidelines to launch its own ad, wondering why Trump was targeting the Florida governor.
For the record, neither DeSantis nor Trump have said they will cut social security benefits, but both have hinted that they might.
I emailed AWN chief national affairs correspondent Jeff Zeleny about the Trump/DeSantis dynamic, the role of deep-pocketed super PACs, and other developments in this embryonic primary campaign.
What’s going on here?
WOLF: We are nine months away from the first primaries, and not all of the leading candidates have declared their candidature. However, there is occasional mudslinging by super PACs. What is going on, and what should we take away from it all?
ZELENY: A new season of attack commercials has begun, with Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis supporters launching some of the campaign’s first direct shots. Now is the time to characterise your opponent – whether you’re a declared candidate (Trump) or one who will be shortly (DeSantis) – and start pointing out potential flaws. Not surprisingly, the first volley focused on Social Security and Medicare, emphasising earlier promises to alter the entitlement programmes.
How does this operate in the case of super PACs?
WOLF: Technically, Super PACs cannot cooperate with campaigns. DeSantis does not have a formal campaign. How precisely does that work?
ZELENY: The Florida governor plans to enter the presidential campaign in May or June, once the legislative session concludes, so in the meanwhile, a gang of well-heeled loyalists is rallying to his defence. The super PAC, Never Back Down, is essentially a campaign in the making, complete with pollsters and political strategists of all stripes. Coordination with the campaign is prohibited by federal election law, but when there isn’t an actual campaign, that formality becomes much easier.
Is there anyone else playing this game?
WOLF: Do other Republican candidates have super PACs with huge pockets? Who are the other players to keep an eye on?
ZELENY: No, not quite as deep, but most major Republican candidates receive some sort of super PAC support. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has some backing and is looking for more, as are other potential contenders. Sen. Tim Scott, a possible presidential candidate, has one financial edge that sets him apart from his competitors: He has more than $20 million in his Senate campaign account from last year that he can spend for his presidential campaign. That’s a head start most of his competitors can only wish for.
Where is this fight going?
WOLF: For some time, Trump and DeSantis have been shadowboxing each other. Can we presume this is a warm-up for a far more brutal fight? What does this indicate about GOP unity as the primaries approach?
Zeleny: GOP cohesion? That will come later, or so top Republican officials hope, but the gruelling season of defining your opponent has begun. The Trump-DeSantis enmity has been simmering for a long time, but their springtime exchanges are almost probably quaint in comparison to what’s to come.
What’s the story behind these advertisements? Where are they running?
WOLF: What do we know about the locations of these super PAC advertisements? Are they targeting specific categories of voters, or is this just a ploy to attract our attention in the media?
ZELENY: For the time being, the majority of the advertisements are airing on cable television and in sports. For weeks, the Trump-supporting Make America Great Again group has been running advertisements attempting to paint DeSantis in an unfavourable light. You’ve probably seen some of them, which start with the foreboding: “Think you know Ron DeSantis? Consider it again.”
Each election year, the role of super PACs expands.
WOLF: Are you expecting any changes in how super PACs will function and participate in the campaign this year?
ZELENY: Super PACs are becoming increasingly prominent with each election cycle. It’s easier to raise funds because there are no federal constraints imposed on candidates. If the first few months of the year are any indication, the 2024 campaign will push the envelope even farther, with outside groups far more influential than political parties or, in some circumstances, even the candidates themselves.
What effect has Trump’s indictment had on his position?
WOLF: Are there any early conclusions we can draw regarding how Trump’s criminal indictment by the Manhattan District Attorney has impacted his campaign? Has it had an effect on his popularity among Republican voters? Has this had an impact on his fundraising?
ZELENY: While early judgements are often risky, the Trump team claims the indictment has boosted donations. It has undoubtedly galvanised many Republicans around him – or at least united them in opposition to the indictment – but it is far too early to tell whether this will continue. He might face criminal charges in Georgia for his role in the attempt to reverse the election results, as well as at least two federal investigations.
