The independent vote is the answer to understanding what transpired during the 2022 midterm elections.
According to Edison Research’s exit surveys for AWN and other news networks, 49% of independent voters countrywide supported Democratic candidates for the House while 47% chose Republicans at this time.
That represents a significant shift from the PAST FOUR midterm elections. Look at how the independent vote was distributed in those elections:
2018
Democratic 54%
Republican 42%
(Democrats picked up a net of 40 seats in the House)
2014
Republican: 54%Democratic 42%
(Republicans picked up a net of 13 seats in the House)
2010
Republican 56%
Democratic 37%
(Republicans picked up a net of 63 seats in the House)
2006
Democratic 57%
Republican 39%
(Democrats picked up a net of 30 seats in the House)
Therefore, it is not a stretch to assume that the outcome of the independents in the midterm elections will be decisive. With numerous crucial contests still too close to call in this election, AWN has yet to estimate who will win the House or the Senate.
The significant role independents have played doesn’t come as much of a surprise when you step back.
Our current era is notably politicised. In the US, elections increasingly resemble parliamentary elections because voters frequently prioritise their team or party over all other factors.
That’s definitely how Tuesday night turned out. Democratic voters cast their ballots overwhelmingly in favour of Democratic candidates (96%) and Republican voters did the same (96%). Although Republicans made up somewhat more of the electorate than Democrats (33% to 36% overall), those numbers essentially balanced each other out.
This underscored the significance of the independent vote (31% of the electorate). Furthermore, independent candidates in this election surely faced cross-pressure.
Only 41% of voters overall viewed President Joe Biden favourably, making him unpopular. But Donald Trump wasn’t either, with 39% of people favouring him. With 27% of voters citing it as the most crucial factor in their decision to vote, abortion was more prominent than most polls indicated in the run-up to the election. It was only surpassed by inflation (31%).
The emphasis on independents is likely to be essential in the future. Biden won the 2020 presidential election by outpolling independents 54% to 41%. In 2016, Trump won by six points over independents.
It is not an accident. Partisanship is at an all-time high, and there are very few voters who could be persuaded to support neither party. Even though this bloc is smaller, it has a significant impact on who ends up winning elections.
