Republicans from across the country are gathering in Washington, DC this weekend for the annual Conservative Political Action Conference.
Some potential Republican presidential candidates, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, have been conspicuously missing. Former President Donald Trump, on the other hand, will appear at the conference on Saturday, riding a surge of popularity in the polls.
Trump is a clear, if not overwhelming, favourite to win the GOP presidential nomination next year. He is now polling at around 44% in national primary surveys. He’s 15 points ahead of DeSantis, who has 29% support.
A 15-point margin may not appear significant at this early stage of the primary campaign, but it is significant for two reasons.
The first is that most contenders in Trump’s current position have won their primary. Consider all of the candidates who received at least 35% in previous national primary polls in the first half of the year preceding the primary (e.g., January to June of 2019 for the 2020 primary).
When faced with at least one major challenger, around 75% of these contenders have gone on to win the nomination since 1972. At this stage of the primary campaign, those polling between 35% and 50% have won roughly 67% of the time.
It would be simple to dismiss Trump’s numbers as the result of his celebrity, but history shows otherwise. Among the eventual nominees from this group were President Gerald Ford in 1976, Vice President George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole in 1996.
It turns out that name recognition is vital for getting nominations and will most likely be a positive rather than a weakness for Trump.
In other words, even if it is early, Trump’s present polling position is statistically significant.
Applicants for DeSantis’ position haven’t fared nearly as well. Since 1972, those polling between 20% and 35% have won their party’s nomination roughly 40% of the time.
A polling resurgence
The second reason Trump has an advantage against DeSantis is that it is growing. This is a departure from where we were for much of last year.
Trump was particularly struggling in the aftermath of Republicans’ dismal result in last fall’s midterm elections. By the later half of November and into December, his once 40-point polling lead against DeSantis shrank to 10 points on average. Trump’s proportion of GOP support dropped from around 50% to around 40%.
The explanation was simple: Trump bore a large portion of the blame for the GOP’s historically poor midterm showing as an opposition party. Several of his supporters, especially those who promoted the myth that the 2020 election was illegal, lost winnable elections.
Trump was no longer regarded as the most electable Republican for 2024, in part because of the election results. In a mid-November Marist College poll, only 35% of Republicans thought he gave them the best chance to reclaim the presidency. This was a decrease from 50% in late 2021.
Meanwhile, DeSantis may be able to refer to his nearly 20-point reelection victory in Florida last year as proof of his electability.
So, what has changed for Trump so far in 2023?
The most basic answer is that he’s been back on the campaign trail, whereas DeSantis has been circling a presidential bid.
Dominating news coverage of the Republican primary race in 2016 was critical for Trump in drowning out his challengers.
Trump has earned more Fox News mentions since the beginning of the year than he did shortly following the midterm elections. Meanwhile, references of DeSantis have decreased.
Trump can remind Republicans of what they liked about him in the first place by going out and campaigning. He can put the disappointment of the 2022 election behind him. According to Marist polls, the percentage of Republicans who believe he is their best bet to win in 2024 has risen to more than 40%.
DeSantis has also had to contend with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley announcing her presidential candidature. The twice-elected South Carolina governor is polling slightly higher than she was before (though still far below 10%), but this simply serves to further divide the non-Trump vote.
The question now is what will happen if and when DeSantis formally declares a bid in 2024. That could reveal whether Trump stays the favourite until the first primary ballots are cast.
For the time being, Trump will almost definitely maintain his current position.
