Donald Trump’s Republican opponents still have time to rally against the ex-president and block his march towards a third consecutive GOP nomination, but time is running out.
A new AWN/SSRS poll shows the ex-president’s big lead is stable in the first primary state of New Hampshire, the campaign is heating up in Iowa, and donors are frustrated by a crowded field that is dividing the anti-Trump vote, all of which are injecting new urgency into the race four months before voting begins.
About four months have passed. During a visit to Iowa on Wednesday, the former president exclaimed, “Can you believe it?,” referencing the meteoric rise in his poll numbers and the fact that he had won Iowa in two general elections.
More than just a horse race is at stake here. With Trump’s support, the Republicans have a chance to elect a man who is currently being tried for four separate crimes, who could be a convicted felon by the time the next election rolls around in November 2024, and who is promising, in an outpouring of autocratic rhetoric, a presidency of retribution that would test the rule of law even more than his first term.
At least in part because of this possibility, President Joe Biden’s campaign and prospects are coming under greater scrutiny as people wonder whether he has what it takes to fend off a terrifying Trump assault and then finish a probable second term that would conclude when he is 86.
Trump is not yet unbeatable, but the circumstances under which he could be defeated are still a long way off.
New Hampshire’s AWN/SSRS survey shows movement in the contest for second place, giving hope to Trump’s opponents who have so far failed to create a viable challenge to an ex-president revered by the party’s base voters.
While Trump enjoys the support of 39% of voters, more than six in ten are willing to consider a candidate other than him for president. This is lower than Trump’s support in other states and in national polls. It’s important to keep in mind that, just like in 2016, there is no clear alternative to Trump in the event that he is defeated.
Former New Jersey Governor and outspoken Trump critic Chris Christie receives 11% of the vote, while former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley receives 12% and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy receives 13% in the poll. The poll is discouraging for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose support has dropped from 13% in July to 10% now, showing that his once formidable campaign has been severely weakened as a result of people’ negative reactions. The race is stable at the top but moving behind the frontrunner, as Haley, Ramaswamy, and Christie all gained significant ground while Trump’s support remained same.
The poll shows that there is a sizable contingent of Granite State residents who are opposed to Donald Trump for president. The latest edition of AWN’s John King’s reporting project featured voters as they sized up their alternatives in the state, and it conveyed a sense that many voters are disillusioned by the idea of another election between Biden and Trump and are despairing over politics in general.
No viable political opposition to Trump
To do real harm to the ex-president in New Hampshire and elsewhere, though, one candidate must emerge from the still-crowded field as the preferred option of the vast majority of people who oppose him. With only four months left, the chasing pack has shown no signs of being willing to sacrifice their own goals for the greater good of defeating Trump. With the race turning south and to large state primaries stacked with nominating delegates, it will be difficult to stop Trump’s momentum if he is not severely damaged in the first two contests.
This is why the upcoming Republican debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California is so crucial: it will provide the runners-up a second chance to make a splash.
For example, Haley hopes to capitalise on the positive feedback she received after the first debate last month in Wisconsin. The results of the New Hampshire poll may give the idea that Haley is gaining ground, and with DeSantis’s support falling, she may soon become the most formidable opponent to Trump.
That’s because polls show a lot of people who would vote for Trump are also interested in Ramaswamy. Christie’s rise is concentrated among Democrats and independents who say they would vote in the GOP primary, yet 60% of New Hampshire voters say they would not contemplate voting for him. This could be a winning strategy in New Hampshire, but it won’t likely be successful for the GOP nationally.
Iowa and New Hampshire are two states where the nomination fights typically heat up and swing in the final weeks. However, the groundwork for a successful onslaught must be established several months in advance. There is a common refrain among political gurus that “it’s early” and things could change. However, in a matter of weeks, it will no longer be considered early.
According to a story by AWN’s Fredreka Schouten and Steve Contorno on Wednesday, Republican funders who thought Trump wouldn’t become their nominee are growing increasingly concerned as the anti-Trump crop of contenders fails to consolidate. The former president claims he is the victim of politicised persecution, but major donors are worried that it may be too late to stop him after he was indicted on criminal charges for trying to overthrow the 2020 election, hoarding classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort, and paying an adult film star hush money.
Despite the fact that Trump’s criminal liability could be a major concern in a general election, his most significant opponents have been unable to use this to their advantage in the Republican primary.
In Iowa, the race reaches a new high point.
Activity in Iowa, the other early nominating state, is picking up, giving the impression that a crucial, more competitive stage of the campaign is occurring.
On Wednesday, Trump travelled into Iowa for canvas launch events and promised a blitz of future visits, continuing what appears to be a general election approach he has been pursuing in recent months (such as declining to debate his competitors in official Republican National Committee debates). In a typical ploy to utilise a victory in the Hawkeye State as a pivot to a national triumph, DeSantis is spending an inordinate amount of time travelling to Iowa’s 99 counties. This action exposes an obvious effort to stamp out any resurgence by DeSantis.
“It really is a unique spot. With an expanded itinerary in Iowa in October and November, Trump has promised to return multiple times.
DeSantis’s assaults on his erstwhile political mentor on abortion show a similar sense of urgency. While criticising Republicans like DeSantis who supported stringent limits on the practise, Trump has been trying to claim credit for forming the Supreme Court majority that invalidated the constitutional right to an abortion. This was evident in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. Trump seems to be targeting voters who penalised Republicans in the midterms due to this issue in the general election. The evangelical supporters in Iowa are crucial to Trump’s chances in the caucuses, but DeSantis has pounced at the chance to try to hurt him.
He said that he supported the sanctity of human life. Speaking to ABC News on Wednesday, DeSantis said, “He was waxing eloquently about how everybody counts” during his speech at the March for Life. DeSantis added, “I thought it was a big mistake for him to then attack people like Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, and all these other states.”
Trump’s reputation among Republican voters, especially in light of his three conservative Supreme Court picks, may be put to the test in Iowa’s abortion issue, where his stances might hurt a more conventional GOP candidate. The governor of Florida’s chances will improve dramatically as a result of this. DeSantis needs his attacks to cut deeply into Trump’s lead if he is to win Florida and potentially send Trump reeling elsewhere.
According to a new Fox Business poll released in Iowa on Wednesday, though, DeSantis isn’t even close to being a threat to Trump. According to the poll, the ex-president has the support of 46% of likely caucus-goers. DeSantis has 15% support while Haley just has 11%. Meanwhile, Trump has 46% support in a Fox Business poll conducted in South Carolina, with 18% supporting Haley and 10% supporting DeSantis.
The Republican nomination contest is heating up in key early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Candidates, though, will soon need to demonstrate that they have what it takes to pose a formidable challenge to the former president and alter the tone of the campaign at a time when he has seemed virtually unbeatable.