On years when there is a presidential election, the race for president takes center stage, making the race for congress look like the ugly stepsister.
The significance of races that don’t make it into the popular vote in determining national policy has been brought to light in recent years. This is particularly the case with the Senate, which must approve all nominations to the Supreme Court and other government positions.
Just like in previous cycles, Republicans benefit from electoral fundamentals, but Democrats, who have a slim majority in the Senate, seem to have the upper hand in terms of candidate quality.
However, at this point in time, it seems that not even the most defective Republican candidates will be able to prevent their party from gaining control of the Senate.
The math and the map are the two “M” difficulties the Democrats are facing.
First, let’s go into the numbers. In the event that Donald Trump is elected president, the Republicans will need to gain one additional member in the Senate (with the help of his vice president in case of a tie). No matter who takes the presidency, they can’t acquire more than two seats to gain a majority.
Republicans can gain those two seats through a variety of means. There are 23 Senate seats up for election this year, with 11 held by Republicans and 23 by Democrats (including independents who caucus with them).
We now reach the map.
Out of the 23 Democratic seats that are up for election this year, eight are located in states that were won by Trump in 2016 or where he now has a five-point lead in the polls. Of them, five are located in states where Trump has a lead of five points or more. Three of these states have an incumbent senator who is the sole Democrat holding a non-judicial statewide post, and Trump won both 2016 and 2020 by margins of eight points or more.
West Virginia is one of the three states where Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is stepping down from his position. Every reputable nonpartisan handicapping organization sees the seat as a sure bet for the Republican candidate, and Trump carried the state by a substantial margin in 2020.
Just two Republican Senate seats are up for grabs; both are in Florida and Texas, states that Trump won by razor-thin margins in 2020. But with double-digit leads over their Democratic opponents, the sitting GOP senators in both states remain in office.
This year, every single Senate seat held by Republicans is in a state where the Republican presidential nominees have had a stranglehold on the electoral college since 2012.
As expected, my colleague Simone Pathe’s most recent ranking of the ten Senate districts most likely to flip this year had just one Republican member (Texas), and that was at number ten.
Good news for the Democratic Party
Even if Republicans take West Virginia, will that be the end of the Senate race?
We still have a long way to go before the general election, so yeah, it’s too early to make a call. Why? Because even if Joe Biden were to win the presidency, which is well within the realm of possibility, the exact second Senate seat that Republicans would need to seize in order to seize control remains a mystery.
Even if the party’s base is strong this year, the polls and expert opinions suggest that Republicans have a commanding advantage in every one of the eight states where Democrats hold the Senate, with the exception of West Virginia. In Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Democratic contenders for the Senate appear to be at least neck and neck.
In the four states where the New York Times and Siena College conducted recent polls—Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the Democratic candidates for Senate had wider margins of victory than Joe Biden. They are outperforming Biden in those four states among likely voters by at least five points, and we’re not talking about a little margin.
The Democratic candidates’ popularity is a major factor in their outperformance of Biden. Despite Biden’s dismal showing in these states, recent polls show that Senators Bob Casey (R-PA) and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) enjoyed net favorable ratings.
It appears like Republicans in Arizona are about to nominate Kari Lake for the Senate. In 2022, Lake’s strong unfavorable score among state voters was a major factor in Inside Elections’ recent shift in assessing the race in favor of the Democrats. She was last seen losing a very winnable gubernatorial contest.
It is not unprecedented for Democratic Senate candidates to outpace their presidential candidates. During the last fifteen years, Republicans have famously fielded incompetent candidates and lost several seats that should have been won. For example, consider Sharron Angle in Nevada (2010) and Todd Akin in Missouri (2012).
During the midterm elections two years ago, when Biden’s support ratings were in the low 40s, the Republicans lost one Senate seat overall and the Democrats kept the chamber in their hands. Democrats fielded more well-liked candidates (like Mark Kelly in Arizona) than their Republican counterparts (like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania).
Get back to the mapping and math
The math and the map still point to the Republicans having the upper hand in 2024. There is little room for error for the Senate Democrats, and it is quite improbable that they will secure all seven of the seats that are now considered contested.
One state, Maine in 2020, voted differently in the presidential and Senate races, as shown in the previous two presidential cycles.
In states like Arizona, Nevada, Montana, and Ohio, Trump is currently leading Biden in the polls by at least five points. He probably has a double-digit lead in Montana. Forget about the polls; Ohio and Montana were never serious contenders for president in 2020 or 2016, and they certainly won’t be this fall, either.
If Republicans were to win each of these Senate races, Democrats would have a far better chance of retaining the Senate. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are states that Trump has a good chance of winning again, so they would have to lose there as well.
Also, Republicans would need a loss in Maryland, a state where Biden is heavy favorite to win but where GOP incumbent Larry Hogan is holding his own in the polls.
Regarding races for the Senate, Republicans might have a tendency to fumble. Even the Washington Generals in Senate contests are uncertain about their ability to lose this one.
Republicans could be “due” for a change, as the iconic “Simpsons” episode famously put it.
