In the states that will determine Joe Biden’s fate in 2024, there appears to be a significant chasm between the opinions of voters and economists regarding the state of the US economy.
As people’s recollections of the Trump administration begin to fade, new polling from The Wall Street Journal highlights the contrast and the difficulty it poses for Biden specifically.
Myths vs. facts
Based on the Journal’s research, swing state voters tend to have a more pessimistic outlook on the national economy and inflation than voters nationwide.
There has been little improvement in the economy during the previous two years, according to just 25% of registered voters in seven crucial states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In contrast, inflation appears to be cooling, and the US economy is mostly avoiding the recession that was widely anticipated a year ago, according to statistical data. Despite genuine concerns, the soft landing did not lead to an increase in the jobless rate.
“A relatively strong economy” is how former Treasury secretary Larry Summers put it last month. To set the scene, Summers was among the first to sound the warning about inflation following the COVID-19 epidemic, and he was a vocal opponent of the Biden government and the Fed during Biden’s presidency.
Comparing the US economy to that of your state
Beyond a discrepancy between voters’ views and economic indicators, there is a far deeper divide. Half of these voters may have a positive impression of their home state’s economy and feel comfortable casting a ballot for that state. On the other hand, the national economy is not very well.
Noted in the Journal:
For instance, 66 percent of North Carolinians have a bad impression of the national economy, while 33 percent have a positive one. If we ask them to rank the state’s economy, though, the results are the opposite. Wisconsinis are more pessimistic about the state’s economic prospects than they are about the national one, by a margin of 16 percentage points.
Nearly half of all voters in these swing states are optimistic about their own financial future.
How come there is a gulf?
The gap between how Americans feel about the economy as a whole and how they feel about their own personal fortunes is nothing new. Ariel Edwards-Levy, polling editor at AWN, directed my attention to April Gallup polling, which found that although 45% of respondents reported strong or excellent personal finances, only 16% assessed the economy in the same positive light. (In the year that has passed, people’s views of the economy have gradually improved.)
Partisanship, as pointed out by Edwards-Levy, can influence even apparently non-political inquiries on the nation’s status.
“When discussing broad national trends, it becomes even more problematic because people’s survey responses are frequently meant to be seen as a form of political endorsement or disapproval,” she added.
Some people might feel abandoned
It is also true that someone may report feeling good financially in a poll, yet there may be signs that they are struggling to keep up.
Check out what AWN has to say about renters who are underwater, racial minorities facing additional obstacles to homeownership, and the 401(k) balance crisis.
Even if investors have felt rich thanks to record-setting stock markets this year, just under a quarter of registered voters in the battleground states polled by the Journal believe the typical person’s capacity to get ahead is improving in the US.
The “when individuals begin to concentrate” claim
During this election cycle, Biden must persuade these voters that the national crisis is just as important as their own personal and state circumstances.
According to a recent poll by the Wall Street Journal, in all of the swing states, at least half of the registered voters believe that Trump can handle the important economic concerns of inflation, immigration, and the economy better than any other candidate.
Many will change their minds as the election draws near, according to Biden’s backers.
President Joe Biden will win the election, first lady Jill Biden stated on CBS on Wednesday morning, if people start to focus and realise their two alternatives.
Trump has a slim edge in North Carolina and Arizona, according to the Journal survey, but the other five states have matches that are within the margin of error, according to her. There is no obvious front-runner in any of the states when possible third-party or independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are included in the question; nonetheless, Trump maintains a slim lead in North Carolina and Arizona.
Jill Biden claimed, “He’s coming up” when asked about the president’s prospects for a gain in the polls.
As you say, there is still a great deal of time for advancements and campaigning to be done before November.
Is Biden’s economic plan going to be the campaign platform?
At the White House on Wednesday, the president and independent, progressive Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont spoke about the Democratic Party’s attempts to rein down prescription medicine prices alongside the president.
According to Biden, he and Sanders “beat Big Pharma finally” when they allowed Medicare to bargain for certain prescription medications. One example is that insulin costs no more than $35 per month for Medicare recipients.
Defeating Big Pharma is probably still a message that hasn’t reached the majority of voters. In February, a KFF study found that over half of all US consumers are concerned about paying for their prescription medications.
Popularity of a president lasts for a long time.
At the time of his resignation in January 2009, George W. Bush’s favorability rating was an objectively dismal 35%, according to polls conducted by AWN. After Americans endured the presidency of the subsequent Republican, Trump, nine years later, Bush’s favorability rating had fully recovered. Now that the Great Recession and the Iraq War are in the past, and Bush is not involved in politics as Trump is, 61% of Americans had a positive impression of him.
Despite his continued involvement in politics, Trump’s approval rating appears to have recovered to some extent. At the time of the rebellion on January 6, 2021, more than 50% of the nation believed that Trump deserved to be ousted from office, according to polling conducted by AWN. Only 34% of people approved of him. After the initial shock of the US Capitol attack subsided and voters began to connect Biden with the presidency and the difficult epidemic years, their perceptions of Trump began to improve.
A recent survey by the Wall Street Journal found that among eligible voters in states that are considered to be in the thick of the election, over half expressed some level of approval for Trump’s performance as president. Trump greatly benefits from the haze of hindsight. According to the Journal poll, just 38% of eligible voters are satisfied with Biden’s performance as president.
Among eligible voters in the seven battleground states, Biden and Trump are tied on the issue of safeguarding democracy. That should come as a shock to the White House, as safeguarding democracy has been Biden’s guiding principle throughout his presidency, whether at home or overseas.
