New polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows that the campaign between former president Donald J. Trump and vice president Kamala Harris is even more closely contested in the states of Wisconsin and Michigan than it was seven weeks ago.
According to the polls, Mr. Trump’s continuous success on economic matters has chipped away at Ms. Harris’s lead from early August. This could be concerning for the vice president, considering that Americans continue to prioritize the economy.
In Michigan, where the election is less than 40 days away, the race is virtually close. Among likely voters, Ms. Harris has 48% support and Mr. Trump has 47%, which is within the poll’s margin of error. In Wisconsin, where Democratic support tends to be exaggerated in polls, Ms. Harris has 49% of the vote while Mr. Trump has 47%.
According to the polls, Ms. Harris is nine points ahead of Mr. Trump in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which has the potential to be a deciding electoral vote for Trump in the Electoral College. In a hypothetical situation where Mr. Trump were to get the Sun Belt states—where Times/Siena polls indicate he is leading—and Ms. Harris were to secure Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—the district could provide her with the precise 270 electoral votes she would require to win the election.
Ohio, which isn’t usually thought of as a presidential battleground but does have one of the most contested Senate races in the nation, was also tested by the Times and Siena College. Ohio is a state where Mr. Trump has a six-point edge and where Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has a four-point lead over her Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno.
Wisconsin, a state that Democrats have been touting for months as a potential Democratic stronghold in the 2020 presidential race, has been decided by less than one point in four of the past six contests. Following Trump’s narrow 2016 victory in Michigan by three-tenths of a point, Mr. Biden won the state by three points that year.
While most people still despise Mr. Trump, polling data shows that Ms. Harris will have a hard time swaying those who just can’t bring themselves to back the ex-president.
“I’m not a happy camper,” expressed 65-year-old Matt Henderson of Westland, Michigan, who works as a maintenance man for the local electric company. He claimed he would support Ms. Harris in the election not because he felt any personal connection to her, but rather to stop Mr. Trump from regaining his office.
His betrayal was “proven” on January 6, 2021, according to Mr. Henderson. “Everyone else is just a secondary concern for him. He made an attempt to squander an election.
Among Black voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio, 80% intended to support Ms. Harris, while 13% intended to support Mr. Trump, according to the polls. Black voters also reported an additional 7% who were unsure of their vote. Ms. Harris may have a significant lead among Black voters, but her 80% is lower than the national total that Mr. Biden achieved four years ago.
From Waukesha, Wisconsin, a suburb of Milwaukee, regional sales manager Antonio Dawkins, 40, said he intended to vote but would omit the presidential line. Even while he despises Mr. Trump, he is equally unhappy with Ms. Harris.
“She’s trying to sell everybody that she’s not Trump, and that’s not enough,” said Mr. Dawkins, who is Black. Without providing any specifics, she says a lot of nice things. The title is “there’s no meat and potatoes,” I suppose.
According to the polls, there is a common thread among voters in swing states: many are concerned that Ms. Harris’s policies will be detrimental to them, while many feel that Mr. Trump’s presidency benefited them.
Nearly half of Michiganders and Wisconsinders think Ms. Harris’s ideas will be good for the state, while nearly half think they will be bad for it. On the other hand, 46% of those same states’ voters think Mr. Trump’s proposals will benefit them.
Yet, Ms. Harris had a tiny advantage when asked directly which candidate they trusted more to “help people like you” in Michigan and Wisconsin. This suggests that voters made a subtle difference between the candidates and their programs.
