According to polling data released on Sunday by the New York Times and Siena College, former President Donald Trump is ahead of President Joe Biden in five swing states where Biden’s approval ratings remain low.
While leading in Wisconsin, polling data suggested that Biden was lagging Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Combining the numbers from all six states, Trump beat Biden by 48 percent to 44 percent. If just likely voters are included, Biden’s numbers rise slightly, but Trump still leads everywhere but Wisconsin and Michigan.
Recent elections have seen the six polling states play a deciding role in the Electoral College, and that tendency is projected to continue in 2024.
The president’s figures were anticipated to be disappointing for him and his campaign in a number of critical groups, notably among voters under 30, Hispanic voters, African American voters and urban voters. The New York Times noted that the more racially diverse the swing state, the further Mr. Biden was behind, and that he led only in the whitest of the six.
Most damaging to Biden were statistics indicating whether or not the United States was heading on the “right track or wrong direction.” In every single state, a majority of voters (at least 60%) felt the country was heading in the wrong path.
Biden had a slim lead over Trump among non-affiliated voters, 39% to 37%. From 2% in Nevada to 6% in Georgia, those asked said they would vote for a different candidate if their only two options were Biden and Trump.
Trump’s poll numbers mirrored his other flaws: At least 44% of voters stated there was “not really any chance” they would back Trump in every state where this question was asked. However, Biden’s numbers were much worse, with at least 47% of voters saying there was “not really any chance” they would support Biden in every state. This number rose to 52% in Pennsylvania and 53% in Nevada.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin all had higher shares of 2020 voters who said they would cast their ballots for Biden. In Nevada and Pennsylvania, Trump held a narrow lead.
Live operators took the votes of 3,662 registered voters over the phone from October 22nd to November 3rd. For each state, the margin of sampling error ranges from 4.4% to 4.8%.