At a time when we are inundated with contradicting polls and statistical ties, Donald Trump’s campaign appears uncommonly confident.
The Kamala Harris campaign is also upbeat, with reports that late decision-makers are favoring her by more than 10%. But she still portrays herself as the underdog. Her presence on “SNL” doesn’t change that, nor does Trump’s statement that RFK’s plan to remove fluoride from drinking water, a significant public health breakthrough, “sounds okay to me.”
Most media people, both officially and privately, believe Trump will win, even as anti-Trumpers encourage their followers to vote for the vice president, such as MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace, who has asked her former boss George W. Bush to openly support Harris.
The campaign’s finale appears to be structured around a widening gender disparity, with Kamala performing significantly better among women and Trump faring much better among men.
According to the Trump campaign, registration data in the battleground states that will decide the election favor Republicans due to mail-in voting. Nearly half of the country has already voted.
Consider the critical Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% advantage, and that’s now shrunk to a 3-point edge.
Furthermore, men account for only 39% of Democrats who have voted there thus far, compared to 49% of Republicans.
According to Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, who appears on MSNBC, the Pennsylvania electorate is far more Republican and male than the previous election.
Harris needs a large turnout in Philadelphia to win the state, and according to multiple news reports, she is still battling to win over some Black men.
In Wisconsin, Trump World believes that in-person voting (which favors the former president) is outnumbering mail ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s supporters are predominantly male, Caucasian, and rural. So, as in Philadelphia, Harris must do admirably in Milwaukee and Madison to win the state.
Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell recently informed me was a toss-up, remains a mystery because it does not track party registrations. So the outcome of the game may be determined by Harris’ performance in Detroit.
The Trump campaign sees comparable advantages in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, where public polling is tight but a Harris victory would be a longer shot. The three Blue Wall states are critical to the election’s outcome.
Perhaps Harris should have chosen Josh Shapiro?
In one crucial state after another, local Black leaders are quoted on the record as indicating they are concerned about warning flags in their community:
Politico: “The city of Milwaukee trails the rest of the state by about 7% in both mail-in return rate and overall registered voter turnout.” It’s a caution sign for Harris, according to several Democrats, as her campaign seeks to increase support among urban and suburban voters in order to overcome Wisconsin’s rural counties.
The turnout of Black voters in Georgia has decreased from over 29% on the first day of early voting to approximately 25%.This is awful news for Harris.
“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats looking for a guaranteed win in statewide office races in Georgia usually need to hit a 30 percent Black turnout rate.”
The Charlotte Observer announced: “As of Wednesday, Black voters had cast 207,000 fewer ballots compared with four years ago — a drop of almost 40 percent.”
“I’m concerned about turnout in Detroit. “I believe it’s true,” Jamal Simmons, a former Harris assistant, told ABC.
This Politico article offers a more optimistic viewpoint, claiming that public surveys appear to underestimate Harris’ popularity.
According to the narrative, “shy Trump voters” – those who refuse to tell pollsters who they favor – are a thing of the past, thanks to his vigorous campaign.
Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters are overlooked by polls, particularly Republicans dissatisfied with their own party: Nikki Haley supporters.
According to Politico, 66% of those voting for Haley in the primary supported Trump in 2016, a dip from 59% four years ago to an anticipated 45% this time around. “Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has nearly tripled from only 13 percent supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.”
To which I respond: Who the heck knows?
Before tomorrow’s election, pollsters are studying the polls to determine which ones are off. And here comes the cliché: it all relies on turnout. Despite generating billions of dollars, if some of Harris’ prospective supporters remain home, her candidacy will fail.
The Trump campaign’s preferred scenarios rely heavily on party registration, rather than surveys that have failed to meet expectations in the previous two cycles.
That explains why the former president is more confident, despite asking his aides if they truly believe he would win.