Not long ago, many Republicans believed the party was finally ready to move on from former President Donald Trump. Nikki Haley was a candidate for President. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was on a book tour, while a slew of other prominent Republicans were in early primary states.
But, in the span of a week, the script for the early stages of the 2024 primary was written, and Trump was once again the axis around which everything revolved.
“It’s Groundhog Day,” said Republican strategist Mike Madrid, a co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project.
While Trump’s approval numbers are falling and Republican voters are telling pollsters they are eager to vote for someone else, a succession of recent events has kept the party focused on him and the scandals that defined his time and office. Washington, D.C., and the country’s largest conservative news organisation have spent days rehashing the Jan. 6 violence. And the possibility of a Trump prosecution in New York foreshadows an early primary season devoted rehashing his record.
“There’s no doubt he’s the elephant in the room, and other individuals will define themselves in contrast to him,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.
In recent days, Trump has stated that if he is indicted, he will “definitely” remain in the race, and that it will certainly “increase my ratings.” Far from distancing himself from the Jan. 6 Capitol riot — a problem in the general election with independents and pro-democracy Republicans — Trump has suggested pardoning some of the Jan. 6 defendants and recently collaborated on a song with some of them. Many conservative Republicans cringed at that, and again when Tucker Carlson of Fox News aired footage downplaying violence at the Capitol.
“Reliving the Trump presidency’s darkest moments is probably not what the doctor ordered for 2024,” Ayres added.
The “biggest risk” for any other presidential contender or down-ballot Republican next year, according to one Republican strategist who requested anonymity to discuss campaign dynamics candidly, is that “we have to talk about Jan. 6 on the campaign trail.”
“I don’t want to be on this side of that debate,” he admitted.
The primary was always going to be about the former president, who remains the frontrunner in the 2024 field despite his flaws. Yet, following a less-than-red-wave midterm election and the first few dismal weeks of Trump’s campaign, it appeared that he might not be able to unilaterally establish the terms of the debate. When she launched her candidature, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley stated that a “new generation” was needed. Republicans suggested probable nominee New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu would not choose “yesterday’s leadership.”
Republicans’ problem is that Trump has made it hard to run anything other than yesterday’s campaign.
In Washington, Carlson’s re-enactment of the Jan. 6 Capitol brawl on Fox News prompted Republicans to answer new rounds of questions about an event they’d prefer to forget — similar of the Trump tweets they’d been forced to reply to awkwardly throughout his presidency. It triggered intraparty discussions about whether the insurgency had been largely peaceful, and it led to charges that those in the party who referred to it as a gloomy day were ideological squishes.
Then came word that Trump had been invited to testify before a New York grand jury investigating his role in hush money payments during the 2016 campaign, raising the prospect of a bombshell criminal case that would once again keep Trump as the party’s central litmus test: would fellow Republicans condemn the prosecution or turn against the former president?
“Ignore it, deflect it all you want,” said Mike Noble, chief of research and managing partner of OH Predictive Insights in Arizona. “Right now, this is going to be the Trump show… The oxygen in the room will be sucked out by focussing on Trump.”
The results were already seen in the early stages of the campaign. Former Maryland Gov. Patrick Hogan cited Trump in his announcement last week that he would not run for president, saying he feared a “pile up” of low-polling contenders would prevent an alternate candidate from “raising up.”
Vivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy biotech entrepreneur and longshot contender, took the opposite approach, swooping into Trump’s orbit. He was pushing for “due process” for those arrested in the Jan. 6 violence by mid-week.
Meanwhile, former Vice President Mike Pence delivered his strongest shot yet at Trump, telling a Gridiron dinner crowd on Saturday that “history will hold Donald Trump accountable for January 6.”
Even DeSantis, who has mostly avoided the former president, looks unlikely to do so for long. His visit to Iowa on Friday occurred with Trump right behind him, with Trump scheduled to follow DeSantis into the nation’s first caucus state on Monday.
Then there are the potential candidates whose resumes are already inextricably linked to Trump. His administration included Haley, Pence, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
“It appears that contenders are attempting to distance themselves from Trump, but are being drawn back in,” said Bob Heckman, a Republican strategist who has worked on nine presidential campaigns. “All of this is wonderful for Trump for two reasons. One, it keeps him current, and two, I believe it is what he desires. He craves being the focus of attention.”
Trump is likely to remain there as multi-candidate events ramp up this spring, followed by debates in which Republicans will be grilled for comments on the violence and other aspects of his presidency.
Already, GOP primary lanes are closing in ways that reflect Trump’s power, with Hogan’s declaration serving as a subtle recognition of the lack of opportunity for any strong Trump opponent. Former Wyoming Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, who became the GOP’s most vocal opponent of Trump, has accepted a position as a professor of practise at the University of Virginia. Former Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse, one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment hearing, has been named president of the University of Florida.
“It’s going to be Trump, or the Trumpiest son-of-a-bitch out there,” said former Illinois Rep. Joe Walsh, who unsuccessfully challenged Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in 2020.
“That’s what this base wants,” he added.
In a typical reelection year for a sitting president, the opposition party would spend its primary campaigning on the incumbent, setting up a fall referendum on President Joe Biden. Yet, as it was in the midterm elections in 2022 and before that — in his own, failed reelection campaign — the primary is emerging as a referendum on Trump rather than on the Democratic Party. Noble referred to it as “the sequel,… 100 percent” about Trump. And it looks that his opponents have no recourse.
“The media likes him. “He’s the story, he’s the tension,” said Beth Miller, a Republican strategist for many years. “How can you not keep writing about him while all of these concerns are still in the forefront?”
If DeSantis or another Republican makes the primary competitive, the exclusive focus on Trump may evaporate. Substantial disparities between candidates may emerge on immigration, Social Security, or a variety of other subjects.
It’s also possible that another candidate will be elected, appealing to voters “who have been dissatisfied, who have moved to the independent column” and who “might come back if they saw a Republican they thought was viable, sane, and a little more to the centre,” according to former Republican New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman.
When asked whether any names came to mind, she replied, “No, not right now.”