As the Iowa caucuses in two weeks’ time clash with Donald Trump’s crushing schedule of legal commitments, the presidential election is on the brink of becoming irretrievably enmeshed with his criminal troubles.
In the midst of the ex-president’s four impending criminal trials, an unprecedented race for the White House will be set in motion by the contrast between the courtroom and the campaign trail. The nation is about to face another political challenge that will put its unity, democracy, and legal institutions to the test as soon as the Republican primary votes are cast. If given the opportunity, Trump will undoubtedly endeavour to exploit the powers of the presidency to avoid responsibility for his 2020 election theft effort and punish his political opponents. He has made it clear that he intends to do just that.
The timing of Trump’s trials and his nomination might determine whether the GOP front-runner runs as a convicted criminal in November. This month marks the official start of primary season, which means that most voters do not want the current president and the former president to go off in a close rematch in November.
After losing in 2016, Trump is hell-bent on making a statement in Iowa and launching an unprecedented political comeback. He shamefully refused to accept the 2020 election results and rallied a crowd that stormed the US Capitol in an unprecedented attack on democracy; he departed from Washington just three years ago. Given his current legal situation, Trump—who is facing 91 charges—has a good chance of becoming the second former president—after Grover Cleveland in 1892—to seek a non-consecutive second term, which would have a profound impact on the nation and the globe.
As the new year began, the former president unleashed a torrent of falsehoods and accusations against President Joe Biden and the 2020 race in an erratic social media post. His angry and protective demeanour foreshadowed Trump’s strategy for the upcoming 2024 presidential campaign and the national crisis. On Truth Social, he asserted that his successor had “attacked his Political Opponent at a level never seen before in this Country and wants desperately to PUT ‘TRUMP’ IN PRISON.” “The great people of America WILL NOT STAND FOR IT” when it comes to his risky game.
This election, crucial to the nation’s future, will undoubtedly be contentious due to Trump’s actions following the last election. His deceitful claims of an election theft and his futile efforts to remain in power by rejecting the decision of the people are the root causes of many of the legal difficulties he will face in the coming weeks. His increasing radicalism and political exploitation of his legal predicament, such as his assertions that the Biden administration is deliberately persecuting him, will taint the political climate in the months leading up to the election. Another gloomy era in American politics may be on the horizon as he vows to use his second term in office to exact “retribution” on his opponents.
The GOP opponents of Trump are running out of time
Efforts by Trump’s Republican opponents to derail his bid for a third straight Republican nomination will escalate in the coming weeks, coinciding with his dual political and legal lives. According to polls, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s chances of pulling off an upset in Iowa are slim. Not to be outdone, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is making a strong case to win New Hampshire and set herself up for a showdown with Trump in another state. Concerned about losing GOP base voters—who have rallied around Trump with each indictment and mug shot—neither contender has been eager to make advantage of the ex-president’s legal troubles.
The success or failure of Trump’s opponents is a reflection of his tighter control over the party than he had in 2020, albeit the decision rests with the voters. Nevertheless, Republicans should be wary of him in the general election due to his history of demagoguery, which has turned off important swing-state voters. His use of language that is evocative of tyrants from the 1930s may be reinforcing Biden’s central claim that he would undermine democratic principles and political liberties in the United States.
In the coming weeks, Biden’s fate will also be decided.
Even while Trump deals with domestic criminal distractions, Biden faces challenging global and domestic policy showdowns that could define his year and his chances of being re-elected.
The president is urging Congress to approve multi-billion dollar aid packages for the war efforts of Ukraine and Israel, but House Republicans are holding them captive in exchange for harsh measures to address the southern border crisis, and the deadline for partial government funding is January 19. This impasse, which includes yet another partial funding deadline on February 2, presents an almost insurmountable obstacle for a Congress that is manifestly incapable of governing.
Additionally, House Speaker Mike Johnson is soon to face a critical moment: he may have to choose between appeasing the far-right members who control his slim majority or keeping the government open and honouring US obligations to allies caught in brutal conflicts. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy also fell victim to this identical predicament. It will be considerably more challenging to resolve the government funding crisis given the closeness of the Iowa caucuses and Trump’s desire for longer-term upheaval in Washington.
The legal situation that Trump finds himself in is quite tangled.
Trump hopes to have a series of rallies in Iowa to end the primary and launch his general election campaign against Biden as soon as possible. However, he will continually be redirected from the path.
In a fresh round of challenges, the ex-president is up against states like Maine and Colorado that are trying to prevent him from running for office on the basis of the 14th Amendment’s “insurrectionist” restriction. His many assertions that the actions he did to invalidate the 2020 election were shielded by presidential immunity are only one of the many issues he is battling with special counsel Jack Smith. He stands to gain enormous power and, in effect, immunity from prosecution if the Supreme Court rules in his favour on appeals that are likely to reach that court.
Separately, final arguments will commence on January 11 in the New York civil fraud trial that targets Trump, his adult sons, and the Trump Organisation. Last year, the ex-president made an explosive appearance as a witness, setting the stage for his 2024 strategy to combine legal and political manoeuvres. The judge has previously found fraud occurred and is now aiming to issue a final ruling, including on restitution, by the month’s end. However, Trump’s attorneys have already appealed the summary judgement against their client and have indicated that they will likely appeal the judge’s decision from the trial as well.
Meanwhile, Trump’s Iowa victory celebration on January 15 could turn sour the following day when the trial to determine damages in E. Jean Carroll’s second lawsuit against him begins. After concluding that Trump sexually assaulted the writer, a civil jury in a different case sentenced him to pay $5 million to the writer for battery and slander. All wrongdoing has been denied by Trump.
This is just the beginning of his legal troubles. In the weeks and months leading up to the racketeering trial in Georgia, where Trump and friends are standing accused of interfering with the election, and in the federal case in Florida, where he is facing charges for allegedly hoarding and mishandling secret materials, further lawsuits are anticipated.
The decision of the appeals court over Trump’s claim of immunity may have a significant impact on whether his federal election meddling trial will begin on March 4 or not, the day before Super Tuesday. The outcome of this could affect the availability of other judges’ schedules and the likelihood that Trump will face criminal charges prior to the November election.
Alternatively, will he be able to delay the inevitable and, if elected in November, use presidential power to dismiss the federal criminal charges against him? On January 9, the ex-president will present his case to a US appeals court in Washington, DC, in an effort to reverse a previous court’s rejection of the immunity claim. Along with the ballot issues from Maine and Colorado, this one will almost certainly make its way to the Supreme Court, further entangling the highest court in the poisonous political heat of an already acrimonious presidential election.
The deadline for Trump to file an appeal with the Colorado Supreme Court on his removal from the ballot is Thursday. Another party involved in the case, the Colorado Republican Party, has already petitioned the US Supreme Court to reverse the verdict by appealing it. Such initiatives have also been rejected by a number of other states. While the decision is currently on hold to allow the former president to appeal, Democratic Secretary of State Shenna Bellows of Maine revealed her decision last week, adding another twist to the 14th Amendment dispute.
