As the election race approaches its last phase, Donald Trump’s successes in key states have spooked Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign.
As of October 10, the AWN’s 10-day polling average tracker showed the vice-president and Democratic nominee with a two-point nationwide lead, 48% to 46%, over her Republican opponent, down from 4% two weeks earlier.
Democrats are more concerned about its impact in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, the seven important battleground states that will determine the White House.
All seven candidates have tiny variations within the margin of error. Harris has only three little leads: Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he leads by one point.
Trump leads the five swing states by a hair.
If that happens on November 5, Trump will get past the 270 electoral college votes needed to win and return to the Oval Office.
Harris can take solace in the fact that many surveys show conflicting results, thus that scenario is unlikely.
As of Thursday lunchtime, FiveThirtyEight’s polling, economic, and demographic simulation still had Harris winning 55 times out of 100. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Harris has modest leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, which would give her a slim electoral college win.
However, Democratic strategists are puzzled by the margins, as the vice-president’s campaign recently reported raising $1bn in 80 days after Harris replaced Joe Biden as contender in July. The figure much exceeds Trump’s campaign haul.
Trump’s campaign raised $309m by late August, but Elon Musk’s Super Pac is providing monetary incentives to swing state voters to register Trump-friendly voters.
Harris’ cash advantages notwithstanding, she appears to have lost some momentum in the “blue wall” Rust belt battlegrounds of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania following her 10 September Philadelphia debate win over Trump.
In a Quinnipiac University poll last Wednesday, her five-point lead in Michigan in the week after the debate was reduced to three points for Trump, 50% to 47%. In Wisconsin, a one-point lead turned into a 2% lead for Trump. Harris lost a six-point advantage in Pennsylvania to 3%.
The intensifying Middle East conflict, particularly Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia group, threatens to further erode support among Michigan’s large ethnic Arab voting bloc, which was already angry over the White House’s support for the Israeli war against Hamas in Gaza.
Quinnipiac found Trump leading in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump appears so sure that he is holding rallies in Democratic strongholds like New York, California, Illinois, and New York, despite polls showing he has little chance of winning. The move seems designed to show victory.
Democratic strategists worry Harris has 24 days to fix her poll stutters before election day. Hurricanes Helene and Milton have wreaked havoc on the southeast US in the past two weeks, distracting Harris from the campaign trail and giving Trump a chance to lie about her and Biden’s recovery efforts.
“I’m very, very concerned and very scared,” James Carville, the man behind Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign and author of “It’s the economy, stupid,” told MSNBC last week.
Carville warned Harris that “Today is gone” to reach people more aggressively. You will lose four to the hurricane. on the Saturday before the election, everything almost stops. So you probably have under 20 days to spread a message.”
They need to be severe, he said, targeting Trump’s import taxes, which experts say will boost inflation. Aggressiveness is required. They should ask questions instead of answers.
Harris sees glimmers of brightness in the gloom. Survey after survey shows Trump leads on voters’ top issues—the economy, inflation, and immigration—but most people believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.
Trump is struggling to convert his money reserves into poll leads, much like Harris has failed to do despite having the edge on several top issues.
His economic policy may be more sophisticated than initially thought, according to the Wall Street Journal. Harris has a 6% advantage on bread-and-butter questions, showing she “cares about people like you”. Trump has the expertise to be president, but 48% believed he was “too extreme” compared to 34% for Harris, according to the paper’s poll.
Harris missed an electoral knockout, but her opponent, despite his bombast and perseverance, has deficiencies that allow a points triumph.