It appears as though Donald Trump also wins some of the time when he loses. On Thursday, when the former president’s criminal charges seemed to take a brief diversion, it seemed as though that might have been the case.
His hush money lawsuit trial in New York is set for March 25, according to court records. A misconduct hearing involving her personal relationship with a prosecutor on her team was held while Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who is leading the election subversion case in Georgia, was on the stand. The legal team representing Trump is aiming to have the Georgia case dismissed or postponed due to Willis’ behaviour.
According to the polls, for now, Trump would prefer the New York case over the others if he had to choose which one to move forward with first.
Just almost everyone in the United States doesn’t take the accusations out of New York seriously. A survey conducted by Quinnipiac University at the close of last year found that only 32% of voters were extremely serious.
Given that Trump’s alleged affair with Stormy Daniels is a major component of the case brought by New York prosecutor Alvin Bragg, this should not come as much of a surprise. Few would be surprised to hear that Trump was involved in the unlawful payment of an adult film actor.
In contrast, 54% of voters in the same Quinnipiac poll believed that the allegations against Trump in the Georgia case regarding his attempts to overturn his loss in the state in 2020 were extremely serious. Our knowledge of the general public’s sentiment in the United States is consistent with this. Following Trump’s denial of defeat and attempts to reverse his 2020 loss to Joe Biden, we have access to a plethora of data. During that time, his popularity among voters declined.
His two federal cases bear a striking resemblance to Georgia’s in terms of public opinion. According to 56% of people, the allegations against Trump are extremely serious because of his behaviour following the 2020 election and preceding the disturbance on January 6th at the US Capitol. A comparable 51% felt the accusations against him for allegedly mishandling secret data following his departure from the White House were extremely serious.
The overall results from Quinnipiac are borne out by other surveys. According to AP-NORC polling, the vast majority of Americans believe that Trump engaged in criminal behaviour by pressing Georgia public officials about the state’s vote count.
However, when asked whether Trump committed any wrongdoing in relation to the New York hush money case, only approximately one-third of them said so. A majority of people think what he did was unethical, but not unlawful (38%).
Of course, they would still be prepared to vote for Trump again even if they felt he messed up in New York.
Last year, an AWN/SSRS poll found that just 30% of respondents believed that the New York allegations, if proven, would remove him from the race for president. Similarly, 33% of those who were initially unsure about Trump vs. Biden felt that the New York charges would disqualify him if they were true.
Views may evolve
Now, if Trump were to be convicted and if voters pay more attention, these numbers in the New York case could alter. A hypothetical conviction differs greatly from a real one, after all.
If they remain unchanged, though, it’s easy to see how Trump may escape with a light sentence, even if the New York court finds him guilty. He may also attempt to gain political benefit from the case. He might attempt to enlist his supporters, as he has done well in previous court battles, or he could attempt to persuade the middle ground that his prosecution is unjust in a case where many do not believe he committed any criminal acts.
If the New York case concludes first, as seems plausible given that it would likely begin first, then that may be the situation. Trump may attempt to sway public opinion regarding the other cases by capitalising on public sentiment around the New York case.
The public’s perception of those other cases is currently very different in relation to the 2024 election.
For instance, in the Georgia election subversion case, almost half of the people polled by AWN/SSRS believed that Trump and the presidency would be disqualified if the claims in Georgia were accurate. When nearly half of the electorate believes you ought to be disqualified, winning becomes considerably more of a challenge.
If the Georgia claims were true, 58% of the initially indecisive respondents in the same poll would not be able to vote. Having 58% of undecided voters feel that is highly concerning in an election with the level of closeness expected in 2024.
Naturally, the timeframe for the Georgia case is now unclear, and the lead prosecutor may not be the one to actually bring the case to trial.
Even if Willis stays on as the primary prosecutor, we still don’t know how the Georgia court processes will influence public perception of the case.
Nobody likes being on trial, but if Trump had to choose, he’d prioritise the New York case.