The most recent polls from Siena College and The New York Times show that voters in the Sun Belt believe that their lives were improved under President Trump’s administration, and they are worried that a White House under Kamala Harris would not. This has set the stage for an extremely close race in three crucial states.
Even though he lost to Joe Biden in 2020 in Georgia and Arizona, Mr. Trump is now up in both states according to the polls. In North Carolina, however, where Democrats have not been elected since 2008, Ms. Harris is trailing Mr. Trump by a razor-thin margin.
The presidential race is developing into one of the most closely contested in history, according to surveys conducted in these three states between September 17 and 21, which added fuel to the fire of a deeply divided society.
Both the Trump and Harris camps have been concentrating on seven states since Labor Day, including North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, which are considered battlegrounds. In a number of pivotal Midwestern states, notably Pennsylvania—the one most important to her presidential aspirations—Ms. Harris has demonstrated relative strength.
However, the Harris campaign now faces an obstacle in Arizona, a state that Mr. Biden won in 2020 by a margin of just more than 10,400 votes. According to the results, Mr. Trump has a 50% lead over Mr. Clinton. In August, a poll conducted by the Times/Siena revealed that Ms. Harris had a five-point advantage. Particularly among Latino voters, support for Ms. Harris appears to have waned, while 10% of that group reported being unsure. In this regard, Mr. Trump is reaping the benefits of ticket splitting: According to the survey, the Democratic candidate for Senate is leading, while Ms. Harris is in second place.
Mr. Trump narrowly defeated Ms. Harris in North Carolina in 2020 by less than 75,000 votes. Ms. Harris received 47% of the vote, while Mr. Trump received 49%. (Most of the survey took place before it was revealed that Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson had posted troubling posts on a pornography forum; this has already affected Mr. Trump’s standing among Republicans in the state.) Even though Mr. Biden narrowly defeated Ms. Harris by less than 11,800 votes in 2020 in Georgia, Mr. Trump has a slim edge against Ms. Harris with 49% to 45%. Each state has a margin of error ranging from 4% to 5%.
Voters in this region were anxious about the nation’s and their own futures, according to the surveys, which may explain why some of Mr. Trump’s grim campaign rhetoric—”Our country is being lost, we’re a failing nation,” he declared in the debate—may be striking a chord with them. According to a plurality, the nation’s issues are so severe that it could collapse. The percentage of Republicans who had that uncertain outlook on the future was substantially higher than that of Democrats, at 72% versus 16%.
Tyler Stembridge, a 41-year-old Republican fire captain from Centerville, Georgia, who claimed to have voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 and planned to do so again in November, expressed his belief that the current course of events will not conclude favorably.
Nearly four years after the House impeached Mr. Trump for “incitement of insurrection” for his role in the rioting of Jan. 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol, respondents were evenly divided over whether Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris would handle democracy better. This is an astonishing finding.
On the other hand, approximately 15% of voters in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia said they were still uncertain or had not made up their minds, suggesting that these races are far from over. While they were leaning toward Ms. Harris in August, this set of voters is now leaning slightly toward Mr. Trump in these states.
Since her debate with Mr. Trump this month, Ms. Harris has experienced a surge of contributions and enthusiasm among Democrats, which coincides with the latest set of Times/Siena polls. When compared to President Biden’s performance before his withdrawal, Ms. Harris’s performance against Mr. Trump in those three states remains substantially better. This gap between Harris and Trump has persisted since before the debate, with Ms. Harris maintaining a four-point advantage in Pennsylvania, according to a Times/Siena poll conducted last week. It is the most crucial swing state in the election, according to both camps.
North Carolina and Georgia, say observers, are particularly important to the former president’s aspirations of returning to the White House, while all three of these Sun Belt states have attracted considerable interest from the Trump and Harris camps. It would be very difficult, but Ms. Harris could still win even if she lost all three of these states.
Character was a major issue for many voters who were still on the fence or could be swayed, and Mr. Trump may face resistance from those votes. Approximately one-third of these voters voiced reservations about Mr. Trump’s character and actions, while nine percent voiced doubts about his integrity and transparency. Approximately 7% of those who were still on the fence expressed worries that Mr. Trump posed a danger to democracy, whether they were already decided or not.
In North Carolina, where 44% of voters were still on the fence or said they might modify their vote, concerns about Mr. Trump’s character were most prevalent due to his unpredictable conduct and outrageous remarks.
“The man is trouble,” remarked Samuel Russell, 69, a pastor from Concord, N.C., who is an independent voter. Russell had previously voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 and planned to cast his ballot for Ms. Harris this time around. He is indifferent to the people he harms. He has no qualms about slamming people. Every single day, he tells fibs. There is nothing he will own fault for. He’s simply not a decent human being.
A smaller percentage of the undecided or swayable voters voiced worries about Ms. Harris’s conduct; however, 16% voiced worries about her character and judgment, and 12% voiced worries about her transparency and reliability. Among the 13% of voters who indicated they could reconsider their support for Ms. Harris, 12% cited her economic policies as the issue that most worried them.
The surveys show that voters in these three states, despite Mr. Trump’s relative strengths, are shifting toward more liberal policies and viewpoints on some of the most controversial issues of the day. Pro-choice advocates have the support of two-thirds of American people. (With 58% of voters intending to support the “fundamental right to abortion” in Arizona’s Proposition 139.)
