Donald Trump, the 45th president, is favoured to be the party’s nominee in 2024. Several nationwide polls of the Republican primary have given him over 60% of the vote, and he leads in every early state that has been polled.
Trump may have more difficulties than meets the eye in the first primary state of the nation, New Hampshire, according to recent data and historical trends. Republicans in New Hampshire who do not support Donald Trump appear to be looking for an alternative and may not make up their minds until the very end of the election.
Check out AWN’s latest poll about the New Hampshire Republican primary, which was performed by UNH. With 39%, Trump was far ahead of the competition. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, ex-South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, ex-New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and Florida governor Ron DeSantis all received between 10% and 13% of the primary vote.
The poll’s findings were disastrous for DeSantis, whose support has dropped precipitously this election cycle. In UNH’s January poll, he led the field with 42%, but his support has steadily declined since then.
Meanwhile, Trump is as stable as ever. Three recent polls conducted by the University of New Hampshire put his support among voters at between 37% and 42%.
In this way, New Hampshire truly stands out. Trump’s local approval rating is significantly lower than the national average. When voters’ second preferences are included in, he falls short of 50%.
Trump’s 39% in this poll is lower than the 46% he garnered in Fox Business polls issued this week in Iowa and South Carolina, two key early voting states.
There is little doubt that Trump can be defeated in New Hampshire if the roughly 60% of voters who are currently not supporting him unite behind a single candidate.
This is easier said than done, but I believe it is achievable with the information we currently have.
Trump’s continued stable proportion of the primary vote in New Hampshire is noteworthy. His supporters are staunch, but he isn’t making any ground.
Not unexpectedly, Trump supporters are nearly twice as likely as supporters of the other candidates to report having made a final decision (69% vs. 18%).
This is awful news for any non-Trump contender hoping to win the primary election on their own merits.
On the other hand, this indicates that a considerable portion of the Republican electorate in New Hampshire is seeking for an alternative to Trump. Because of this, 82% of the people who are choosing someone other than Trump are not 100% behind their candidate.
They could do well to wait for Trump’s most formidable challenger to emerge before throwing their support behind them. It’s possible, but we don’t know for sure, that such a candidate will surface. Christie, Haley, and Ramaswamy have all broken into the top ten in the UNH polls as a result of DeSantis’ precipitous drop.
The past is prologue.
This sort of thing happens frequently with Trump. Remember the Iowa caucuses in 2016? Trump’s second-place finish was in line with survey predictions at this point in the election cycle. Both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, who ultimately finished first and third in Iowa, were polling in the single digits at this point.
A strong favourite might easily be knocked out in New Hampshire this time around.
No national contender has ever lost a primary despite having such a massive polling advantage as Trump currently enjoys. However, this is not unheard of in New Hampshire and it happened not too long ago.
At this point in the 2000 election cycle, UNH polls showed that George W. Bush, the Republican frontrunner, had secured 45% of the vote. Elizabeth Dole came in second at 15%, and John McCain in third at 12%. Before the New Hampshire primary, Dole suspended her campaign.
However, McCain ultimately prevailed against Bush, 49% to 30%.
The senator from Arizona won thanks largely to support from the centre and from independents. That’s probably what would have to happen for Trump’s rival to overtake him. According to polling data, Trump is least popular amongst these voters. According to the UNH survey, Trump has support from 23% of moderates, 23% of independents (or Democrats), and 14% of people who are not affiliated with any political party.
As a result of the Granite State’s more moderate total electorate and the fact that independents can vote in the primaries, these voting blocs play a larger role in New Hampshire primaries than in any of the other early-voting states. Moderates and independents made up twice as many of the Republican primary voters in New Hampshire as they did in Iowa for the 2016 election.
Keep in mind that the Republican who wins the Iowa caucuses almost never goes on to win the Republican primary in New Hampshire. A sitting president not running in the Republican primaries is unprecedented in the modern primary era.
However, even if 2024’s version of John McCain emerges, that may not help their cause in the long run. In the end, Bush won the Republican nomination in 2000 despite losing in New Hampshire.
To defeat Trump, New Hampshire is merely a stepping stone. Much more is needed.