In an imaginary rematch for the presidency in 2024, a new national Wall Street Journal survey reveals that former president Trump narrowly leads current president Joe Biden, with Biden being held down by relatively weak support among “disaffected Democrats.”
The fact that registered voters’ preferences for president vary across different survey situations shows how open voters’ intentions are at this early point in the election.
Among US registered voters, 47% would back Trump if given the choice between him and Biden, 43% would back Biden, and 10% are still unsure. That’s in line with other recent national surveys that have shown a tight race without a clear front-runner or have given Trump a slim lead.
While 94% of 2020 Trump voters said they would support the Republican now, only 87% of Biden’s 2020 supporters are still with him, according to the Wall Street Journal poll. And according to the Journal, “voters who are undecided on the presidential race lean Democratic in other survey questions, suggesting that they could be persuaded to back Biden nearly a year from now.”
When asked to imagine a possible future in which Trump is found guilty of a felony in “either the classified documents or January 6th federal trials” before the election, the percentage of voters who would support Biden under such circumstances is 46%, while the percentage who would support Trump is 45%.
Even when including possible independent or third-party candidates, Trump still has a narrow lead over Biden.
When imagining a Republican nomination contest, Biden would finish in second place, behind former UN ambassador Nikki Haley (51% to 34%), and in a tie with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (45% to 45%).
Meanwhile, expectations for the state of the nation’s ecology are, without a doubt, low. The percentage of eligible voters who believe the United States has made progress on inflation over the last year has increased from 20% in August to 26% now. Among those who have cast a ballot, 37% have expressed approval of Biden.
In addition, the Wall Street Journal examined the forthcoming Republican primary and found that, among prospective Republican primary voters nationwide, Trump had 59% support, with Haley and DeSantis nearly deadlocked for second place, at 15% and 14% respectively. This is in line with previous recent Republican primary polls, which have consistently shown that Trump has the backing of the majority of the country’s prospective GOP electorate.
A random sample of 1,500 registered voters from around the country participated in the survey between November 29 and December 4. The margin of sampling error for the complete sample of adults is plus or minus 2.5 points.