The presidential election of 2024 is rapidly approaching, yet we can’t seem to move past 2020. This week, former president Donald Trump was indicted and arraigned on charges relating to his efforts to reverse the results of the election. While Trump and President Joe Biden are seen as the frontrunners in their respective parties’ primaries, they are not expected to make it to the general election.
Perhaps it is not surprising, then, that whether or not people consider the 2020 election to be genuine is arguably the most important predictor of vote choice for the Republican nomination.
As he runs for the Republican nomination for a third time, Trump is reaping the benefits of his ability to persuade a sizable portion of the party’s base that Biden’s victory was fraudulent.
Multiple surveys have confirmed that a sizeable minority of Republican voters still hold onto the myth that Biden’s victory was illegitimate. According to a July AWN/SSRS poll, 71% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican view Biden’s victory as fraudulent, whereas only 27% share the latter view. In a similar vein, 31% of those polled in May believed it to be legitimate while 67% said it was not.
This May survey also inquired about the likely Republican nominee for 2024. Among those who believed the 2020 election was fraudulent, Trump received 64% of the vote. Among those who thought Biden’s win was legitimate, that number decreased to 27%, making the shift in support for Trump based on this issue 37 points. (The March AWN poll put the percentage increase in favorability at 35.)
In terms of those who thought his loss was fraudulent, Trump led Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by 39 points in a poll conducted in May. He shared DeSantis’ view that Trump’s loss in 2020 was legitimate with that tiny minority.
Consider the correlation between education (often the most predictive demographic category) and support for Trump to get a sense of how much of a dividing line 2020 election sentiments are on the GOP primary. In May, Trump’s support rose by 35 points among voters without a college degree, and by 14 points among those who did have a degree. However, the legitimacy question for 2020 shows a much wider gap than only 21 points.
It makes a lot of sense that Trump fares better with people who think he lost the election dishonestly. Trump’s track record of success is a major selling factor. If a Republican voter believes Trump will lose, they will very certainly vote for someone else.
It’s also consistent with findings following the 2022 vote. Despite Biden’s low popularity, Republicans had one of the worst midterm showing ever for an opposition party. It was around this time that Trump’s political fortunes began to decline, as his favoured candidates suffered significant defeats in several crucial races.
As a result, DeSantis, who easily won reelection in Florida, drew closer than ever before to Trump in Republican primary surveys, resulting in Trump’s lowest share ever.
Based on these findings, I have to wonder why many of Trump’s Republican opponents are attempting to brush aside the obvious problem. This election is not about the future, despite the Republican Party’s repeated claims to the contrary.
Trump has been able to convince Republican voters of a dream by using the Republican Party apparatus and GOP candidates. These folks have gobbled it up and given Trump a massive lead in the primaries as a result.
This gives Trump’s Republican detractors two options.
One option is to appeal to the substantial number of voters who believe Trump has never lost an election and was unfairly denied a second term.
The second line of attack would be to claim that Trump is a perpetual loser who will be defeated in 2020 and again in 2024. DeSantis has just recently begun doing this. He plans to increase the frequency of these as he plots his comeback.
Given where the GOP base is at this time, neither of the aforementioned options seems like it would be an easy case to make, which is why Trump is still the obvious favourite to win the Republican nominee once again.