Antony Blinken, Secretary of State, had no choice.
Diplomatically and domestically, a planned visit to China in the coming days would have been impossible to carry out as what US sources described as a Chinese surveillance balloon flew across the US.
The drama derailed the Biden administration’s attempt to defuse tensions between the United States and China. And it is another another episode that will heighten fears in Washington and Beijing that the world’s largest superpower and its rising adversary are on the verge of a clash.
China took the unusual step of apologising for the “unintended intrusion” of a meteorological civilian blimp into US airspace.
“The Chinese side will continue talking with the US side and correctly address this unexpected issue caused by force majeure,” stated Beijing’s Foreign Ministry in a statement.
If Blinken had gone to Beijing, the balloon episode would have overshadowed other critical difficulties in the relationship, such as Taiwan and economic conflicts. But, with Republicans outraged about the event, going ahead with the visit would have given President Joe Biden’s administration the appearance of not being tough enough on China. Domestic politics in both Washington and Beijing have a significant role in establishing what is frequently referred to as the world’s most important diplomatic relationship.
The Pentagon claims it has been watching the balloon, which is the size of three buses, for several days but has decided not to fire it down. It reasoned that because the balloon was flying well above commercial and military airspace, it posed no significant intelligence danger.
This appears to be a realistic attitude given that Chinese surveillance satellites with significantly stronger espionage capabilities are known to linger in space above the United States. Officials also stated that this is not the first time the United States has followed one of Beijing’s balloons during this or past administrations.
This is far from a DEFCON-1 scenario. However, the balloon provides an excellent view into one of the most destructive causes propelling the United States and China toward conflict. In both countries, the politics of the world’s most crucial geopolitical relationship are so tense that any event might spark a fresh round of recriminations. That is why Blinken was travelling to Beijing.
Washington is already enraged.
Republicans, who have long sought to depict Biden as soft on China despite the fact that he has been at least as aggressive as ex-President Donald Trump, are outraged by what they see as a violation of US sovereignty.
“Information strongly implies the (Defense) Department failed to act with urgency in reacting to this airspace intrusion by a high-altitude surveillance balloon. “No intrusion should be ignored, and all incursions should be dealt with correctly,” said Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee.
House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has already warned China that it cannot prevent him from visiting Taiwan if he so desires, has requested a briefing on the balloon for the Gang of Eight congressional leaders.
“China’s flagrant contempt for US sovereignty is a destabilising conduct that must be addressed, and President Biden cannot remain mute,” the Republican from California stated.
It is reasonable to wonder why China dispatched a surveillance balloon over the US prior to Blinken’s key visit, given that both sides appear eager to halt the perilous decline in their relations. It appears significantly less plausible that this is a planned provocation, given that China may also want to cool things down. Beijing may have lost control of its blimp. Even said, if a US balloon were to be blown across the Chinese mainland right now, President Xi Jinping’s regime would very certainly exploit the situation for maximum propaganda benefit.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Friday that it was aware of the situation but cautioned against “deliberate conjecture.”
“China is a responsible nation. We conduct ourselves in conformity with international law. We have no intention of violating the airspace of other countries. “We hope that the relevant parties will manage the situation calmly,” stated Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.
Meanwhile, Canada stated on Thursday evening that it is also tracking the balloon’s travels and collaborating with their American counterparts, including the monitoring of a potential second incident.
Going into the Blinken talks, there appeared to be a small window of opportunity to improve relations between the long, tense period preceding Xi’s norm-breaking re-election to a third term in office, which may have contributed to a nationalistic Chinese attitude that exacerbated tensions with the US, and the next American presidential election. (White House races almost invariably devolve into China bashing, which irritates Beijing.)
However, the mood surrounding the talks had already been tainted by a note from US Air Force Gen. Michael Minihan, which was first revealed by NBC last week, warning that his “gut” tells him to be ready for war with China – and not just in theory, but in two years. That prognosis does not correspond to US government assessments of the Pacific geopolitical struggle, nor does it necessarily correspond to developments in the region. However, it demonstrated how isolated occurrences can escalate Sino-US animosity.
A Chinese surveillance balloon is now drifting above that tense environment. This incident may turn out to be insignificant, but it is yet another minor drama that has not only ruined Blinken’s trip, but will also fan the political flames that elevate hawks in Washington and Beijing who see what they want to see – an inevitable march toward conflict – and increase the likelihood of that dangerous scenario.
