With the regional status quo likely to persist and the fear that a single accusation may inflame tensions with Israel, the Biden administration is keeping a careful eye on Iran’s reaction to the unexpected death of its president.
After the tragic helicopter crash that killed Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian over the weekend, senior U.S. officials are of the opinion that Iran’s policies will remain mostly unchanged until the country’s upcoming election for a new president.
The 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is still the de facto leader of Iran. There is a great deal of unpredictability in the political climate right now since the election of the next president is a tightly controlled process by the country’s conservative religious leaders. The longer-term issue of who will succeed Khamenei as supreme leader is one that Iran is probably more ready to handle: His death has further cast doubt on the succession plans of Raisi, who had been considered as a possible contender.
The date of the supreme leader competition—which may be contingent on Khamenei’s health—and Iran’s handling of the current political turmoil are being closely monitored by Washington. However, according to the Biden administration, Iran will be too preoccupied with its current problems to alter its regional policy, such as providing support to proxy forces that trouble numerous Arab governments, Israel, and the US.
A senior administration official, along with five others who wished to remain anonymous, stated, “I am not betting on any policy changes” in order to express their internal thoughts over the delicate matter.
The statement by State Department top spokesperson Matthew Miller on Monday, expressing the administration’s “official condolences” for the deaths of Raisi and Amirabdollahian, was puzzling considering the long history of animosity between the two nations. Adding to what Miller said, the statement reaffirmed the United States’ support for the Iranian people and their fight for human rights and basic freedoms, especially as Iran chooses a new president.
During Monday’s news briefing, Miller said that Iran had requested American aid in locating the crashed helicopter. “We expressed our willingness to provide assistance, which is something we would do in this situation with any government,” Miller explained. “In the end, we were unable to offer that help, mostly due to logistical considerations.”
Although things have calmed down today, such wasn’t the case when Iranian state media initially broke the news of Raisi’s possible death.
On Sunday, American officials worried about the helicopter’s whereabouts and speculated about how the accident may change the Middle Eastern situation for hours as they awaited reports from the hunt.
According to three senior administration officials who were not allowed to publicly discuss internal conversations, while the search continued for over half a day, U.S. authorities also listened to determine if anyone from Iran could be held responsible for the crash.
Despite the lack of initial intelligence suggesting anything other than a weather-related catastrophe, there was concern that Tehran may swiftly accuse Israel and the United States of sabotaging the transport.
For a brief moment, asking, “Is this how World War III begins?” was not an absurd question, according to one of the officials.
When asked about the disaster, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Monday that “the United States had no part to play.”
Only a few short weeks ago, in response to Israel’s assassinations of senior Iranian military officials in Syria, Tehran unleashed a barrage of over 300 missiles and drones on Israel, including some that had never left Iran since the Islamist dictatorship came to power in 1979.
Israeli citizens, military bases, and civilian infrastructure were all protected by President Joe Biden’s real-time command to the United States military to halt the attack, with the assistance of many Arab states. In retaliation, Israel carried out a limited strike close to Isfahan, where Iran has a military facility that houses its F-14 Tomcat fighter jet fleet.
A return to normalcy in the country was the immediate focus of Iranian official media, suggesting that the local audience found the retribution appealing. The United States, Israel, and Iran all agreed not to exacerbate the situation any further, and tensions quickly subsided.
American authorities watched Sunday’s events unfold in anticipation of Iran’s possible shifting of blame to Israel rather than admitting that its president had been unprotected, either because of human mistake or the use of an outdated chopper, according to two sources. Such a compromise was always going to be improbable. The officials said that the likelihood of a broader regional confrontation was minimal so long as Iran did not shift responsibility.
Additionally, Austin expressed his regret for the mishap, saying, “we continue to monitor the situation but we don’t have any insights into the cause of the accident at this point.”
Iranian Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is currently filling in for Raisi until new elections can be held.
The vice presidents of Iran tend to keep a low profile. However, the Biden administration is already looking into Mokhber because to his involvement in Russia’s acquisition of missiles and drones for the conflict in Ukraine.
To clinch a sale of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles to Moscow, Mokhber came to Moscow in October 2022 with a delegation of senior Iranian officials. The United States has spoken out against Iran’s armament sales to Russia, citing the sale of drones used by Russia in its attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure as an example.
Having served in the medical corps of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during the Iran-Iraq conflict in the 1980s, Mokhber is reportedly a conservative politician with close ties to the supreme leader.
He was a top official at both the Mostazafan Foundation, a foundation under Khamenei’s control that is sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department, and Setad, a corporation under Khamenei’s control that was working on a COVID-19 vaccine.