With fewer than two weeks until the midterm elections, Republicans are obviously gaining ground in the contests for the House and Senate. And a huge reason for that is the party’s significant wager that crime would be a hot topic this autumn.
According to an AWN study of AdImpact data, GOP candidates and organisations spent $64.5 million on crime-related advertisements throughout the first three weeks of October. This is roughly one-fourth of all the money they spent on advertisements during that time. Many of those advertisements claimed that Democrats supported measures to defund the police or the elimination of cash bail. Democrats have also run a considerable number of crime-related advertisements, spending $58 million over that time period, or 15% of their overall advertising budget, as a result of sensing their vulnerability.
Republican advertising on crime have been so successful at swaying voters, as seen by new Gallup polling data.
More over half of Americans (56%) claimed that local crime was up from a year prior. This is the highest score ever recorded by Gallup in its five decades of polling on the topic. It is up a staggering 11 points from 2021 and 18 points from 2020.
Republicans are especially vocal about their worries about the increase in local violence. In contrast to 38% of Republicans who answered the same thing in 2020, 73% of Republicans claimed that crime is growing worse near them.
Republicans aren’t the only ones with growing concerns about neighbourhood crime, though. In comparison to 2020, when 38% of independents stated the same, today’s majority (51%) of independents say there is more crime in their neighbourhood. In contrast to 37% in 2020, 42% of Democrats stated local crime has increased.
In comparison to 2021, Americans are now more concerned about being murdered, sexually assaulted, or attacked in their house or vehicle. The largest increase in anxiety? A child being “physically hurt” while at school is a concern for 47% of respondents, up from 34% in 2021.
How does public fear of crime compare to actual statistics?
According to the FBI’s 2021 Crime Report, violent crime nationwide decreased by 1% from the previous year. The rate of homicide increased by 4.3% while the rate of robberies decreased by 8.9%.
However, perception frequently has a greater impact on crime than actuality. People don’t really care what the national numbers show if the local news is flooded with instances of violent crime. They feel in danger, and fear is a really potent voter motivator.
Undoubtedly, the Republican base is driven in large part by fear of crime, along with worries about inflation and President Joe Biden’s enduring unpopularity. But independent voters, who traditionally make up the swing votes in any national election, are also thinking about it.
In an effort to defend themselves, Democrats are running ads around the nation that feature former law enforcement officers bragging about their expertise in fighting crime and pledging that they would never cut funding for the police.
However, it might be a case of too little, too late. On November 8, Republicans stand to gain politically as a result of the electorate’s fear.