The House speaker elections on Friday are about Donald Trump rather than Mike Johnson.
Johnson’s frenzied effort to keep his job remained a cliffhanger as Republicans faced a critical day.
But the president-elect is putting considerably more on the line, including his desire for a quick start to his second term and his vow to deliver big change. If Trump fails to get Johnson over the line, he will raise additional questions about his ability to effectively manage the GOP’s trifecta of power in the House, Senate, and White House.
The 119th Congress, therefore, marks the opening day of Washington’s new Trump era, with Republicans seeking to generate real results as soon as he returns to the Oval Office on January 20th.
On Friday, Trump gave Johnson an emphatic endorsement on his Truth Social network, hinting that failing to re-elect him as speaker would be an insult to his own 2024 general election triumph.
“Good luck today to Speaker Mike Johnson, a terrific man with considerable ability who is on the verge of receiving unanimous support. A victory for Mike today would be a significant win for the Republican Party, as well as another recognition of our 129th most important Presidential Election!! – A HUGE AFFIRMATION, INDEED. MAGA!” The President-Elect wrote.
The country’s new leaders intend to use sophisticated maneuvers to overcome Democratic filibusters in the Senate to implement broad changes in immigration policy and significant tax cuts. Such actions will necessitate unity and political savvy, qualities for which the House GOP is not well known.
But before they can accomplish anything, House Republicans must elect a speaker, an often routine operation that is extremely dangerous for Johnson due to the small majority, which means he can lose only one vote in his fractured party if every lawmaker attends.
The Louisiana Republican believes the GOP is about to miss a good chance.
“I genuinely believe … we could be the most consequential Congress of the modern era, because I believe President Trump will be the most consequential president,” he shared with Fox Business on Thursday. “We have to fix everything, and that has to begin on day one, so we don’t have any time to waste.”
New York Rep. Mike Lawler, one of the GOP’s most vulnerable members in the 2026 midterms, warned of the dangers of a protracted vote. “From my vantage point, that would be the height of stupidity to get into a protracted speaker battle,” he told AWN’s Kaitlan Collins.
Trump needs a rapid victory.
Even Trump’s backing, which has destroyed most Republican dissent to his MAGA movement, does not guarantee Johnson’s victory as unified conservative rule takes root. The president-elect has an added motivation to secure Johnson’s speakership after seeing the limits of his power before Christmas, when Republican defections in the House stymied his demands to increase the debt ceiling.
Any recurrence of the farce of two years ago, when Speaker Kevin McCarthy was elected after 15 rounds of voting, would be a disaster for Trump and demonstrate how his objectives could fall through a legislative trap door at any time. It would also bode ill for the arduous process of rallying the governing party around a budget, the difficult compromises required in any tax reform bill, and the president-elect’s hopes of quickly obtaining a massive increase in funding for his promised mass deportation plans and border security.
According to AWN’s Kristen Holmes and Alayna Treene, Trump has agreed to phone prospective holdouts, emphasizing the importance of the speaker vote.
If Republicans do not nominate a speaker by Monday, they will be unable to begin the congressional process of certifying Trump’s election victory, a spectacle that would undoubtedly enrage and embarrass the president-elect. The certification comes on the fourth anniversary of his mob breaking into the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an attempt to overturn President Joe Biden’s rightful electoral victory.
Republicans feel Trump has a mandate after winning all seven swing states and a plurality of the popular vote in November to overthrow a Washington establishment that many voters believe neglected their concerns. However, before they can dismantle the government and cut its budget, Republicans must demonstrate that they can govern competently enough to carry out their reform.
Given the divisions in the House GOP conference and the reality that a majority of one is rarely a functioning majority, this is no easy assignment. And time is limited. With midterm elections looming, new presidents have limited time to put their policies into action. The GOP’s weak unity and upcoming battles make Trump’s window even slimmer.
Why certain members dislike Johnson.
Despite his optimistic projections on Thursday that he would win in a single round of voting, Johnson may not have enough votes.
Some members criticize the Louisiana Republican for passing policies with Democratic support last year, including a multibillion-dollar aid package for Ukraine – despite the fact that Republicans controlled neither the Senate nor the White House. Others question his speaking abilities and wonder, following a year-end dispute over a stopgap budget bill scuttled by Trump and Elon Musk, if he has the ability to steer the president-elect’s agenda.
One legislator has already committed not to vote for Johnson, who emerged as a late compromise candidate and won the speakership in October 2023 after a painful hunt for a leader following McCarthy’s removal.
Last month, Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie told AWN’s Manu Raju that nothing could persuade him since “there’s nothing I want in exchange for my vote.” Rep. Tim Burchett, a frequent Johnson opponent, said Thursday that he would study and pray about his decision overnight. The Tennessee Republican acknowledged that Trump’s support for Johnson was a role. He also revealed that Johnson had contacted him about his desire for a commitment to returning to single-issue expenditure bills. “That’s new to me,” Burchett told AWN’s Lauren Fox over the phone.
Massie and Burchett are examples of lawmakers who, due to their own principled positions or conservative histories that resonate in their districts, may be immune to primary threats posed by Trump or Musk.
In a normal governing circumstance – in a party with a working majority – such lawmakers would most likely be allowed to oppose Johnson. However, due to the miniscule House majority, party leaders are unable to implement such adjustments.
Johnson spent Thursday alternating between meetings with politicians and conservative media studios in an attempt to shore up his position. He met with a group of Republican holdouts, including Chip Roy, Ralph Norman, Andy Harris, Andy Ogles, Michael Cloud, and Eli Crane.
Norman exited from the meeting, remarking, “Mike is listening; he is a good listener; otherwise, he would not have stayed for the last hour.” The South Carolina Republican also stated that “people trust Mike Johnson,” a reference to the acrimonious feud between McCarthy and some of his party’s opponents, particularly his main adversary, former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz.
Following the sessions, Johnson informed reporters that “people are talking through process changes.” But therein lays a potential trap. McCarthy’s weakness as a speaker was due to the fact that he made so many concessions to hardliners that he reduced his own influence and prospects.
Nonetheless, several elements work in Johnson’s favor and may help him get through.
— Reports of Trump’s desire to persuade holdouts might be crucial. It would take a daring congressman to defy a powerful new president who controls the base like Trump. The idea of impeding a new period of conservative administration and risking exposure to a right-wing media barrage may also persuade some people.
– Political dynamics have shifted substantially. When Republicans fought bitterly for the speakership in the last session of Congress, Democrats controlled the Senate and the White House, so there was little chance of them advancing important legislation in any event. Now there is a lot more to lose.
— And with few obvious choices to unite the House Republican party, Johnson, who rose to prominence from the backbenches, may win by default.
After all, if not Johnson, who?
