Words like “insurgent” and “anti-establishment” might be at the forefront of your mind when you consider Donald Trump’s connection to the Republican Party. Even without the support of Republican governors and lawmakers, the billionaire and reality TV celebrity was able to get the nomination in 2016.
That was then, though; things are drastically different now, just over a month before the Iowa caucuses of 2024. Trump is no longer an insurgent.
Actually, Trump has become the establishment, according to the numbers.
Have a look at the endorsement contest. A possible boost to Nikki Haley’s candidature in the first state for Republicans to hold a primary was given this past week when New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu endorsed her. Last month, Ron DeSantis was elated to get a similar endorsement from Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.
Nevertheless, these instances did not conform to the norm.
Approximately one hundred governors and members of Congress have endorsed Trump. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has stated his intention to back Trump, while current Speaker Mike Johnson has endorsed the ex-president.
In Republican presidential primaries without an incumbent, only Bob Dole (in 1996) and George W. Bush (2000) have garnered more endorsements thus far since 1980. Bush was a popular governor and the son of a past president, while Dole was a former Senate majority leader and would go on to become the majority leader of the Senate at the same time.
In terms of endorsements, Trump is faring much better than Mitt Romney and John McCain, the two most recent Republican nominees. This is significant because both guys were long-time members of the Republican establishment who opposed Trump and whom he has now attacked.
When it comes to endorsements for 2024, neither DeSantis nor Haley can be considered serious contenders with Trump. Haley has two, including Sununu, on her side, while DeSantis has just seven governors and lawmakers on his.
Trump still has over ten times the number of endorsements as Haley and DeSantis combined.
The overwhelming amount of endorsements is positive for Trump, according to history. He was the Republican nominee in 2016 even though he did not have the most endorsements before the Iowa caucuses.
It appears that Trump’s 2024 campaign is significantly more establishment-oriented than his 2016 campaign, and it’s not just because of endorsements.
At this time, Trump is far and by the GOP’s top fundraiser. In the most recent quarter, his political organisation earned more than $45 million. With hauls of approximately $11 million and $15 million, respectively, DeSantis and Haley were in last place.
Just $3.9 million was Trump’s take in the same period in 2015. Among Republican contenders, he did not even rank in the top five. That was due in large part to Trump’s avoidance of fundraising events. Finally, he was a rebellious contender for office.
Once Trump joined the 2016 general election, he abandoned that insurgent label and has retained it ever since.
Trump now resembles Jeb Bush more and more; Bush was the GOP’s top fundraiser during the 2016 presidential campaign, when his super PAC was considered. Bush was a staunch opponent of Trump, much like McCain and Romney. The former Florida governor was a favourite target of Trump’s attacks.
Trump leads his opponents even in the polls among the most traditionally establishment-affiliated demographic: White voters with a bachelor’s degree or above.
Earlier last month, a poll from Monmouth University found that among this demographic, Trump received 41% of the vote. His nearest rival, Ron DeSantis, received just 24% of these votes.
Similarly, in the time leading up to the 2016 primary, an AWN/ORC poll indicated that among voters with a bachelor’s degree or above, just 18% supported Trump.
Those with a master’s degree or higher—the educational category in which Trump performed poorly in 2016—also benefit from Trump’s policies. Even among these voters, he was ranked high in a recent survey by the Pew Research Centre.
Finally, there aren’t any major holes in Trump’s support network right now. Even without the backing of the establishment or the largest campaign bankroll, he managed to secure victory in 2016.
Trump now possesses both and is in a strong position to easily win the Republican race in 2024.
